NFL Parlay Picks Week 6 (2020)

The dogs will be barking on my Week 6 parlay card. This week, my parlay features three short underdogs who I think could win straight up on Sunday.

There’s nothing better than taking a shot on a few live dogs. Let’s dig into the Week 6 parlay.

View consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 6 of the NFL >>

Leg 1: Houston Texans +3.5 at Tennessee Titans 

The post-Bill O’Brien era got off to a strong start when the Texans dominated the Jaguars, 30-14. Now, Houston will travel to Nashville to face a Tennessee team dealing with some unique circumstances.

The Titans will be forced to strap it up with just five days between games after dismantling the Bills, 42-16 Tuesday night. And while the score might look impressive, the box score tells a slightly different story.

Buffalo simply imploded Tuesday and Tennessee took advantage. The Bills committed 10 penalties and turned the ball over three times. The Bills actually out-gained the Titans 370-334. Four of Tennessee’s nine possessions started inside Buffalo’s 30-yard line. And to no surprise, Tennessee punched it in the end zone on all four of those drives.

Tennessee deserves a ton of credit for simply avoiding mistakes and being opportunistic. But given the situation, this could be a tricky spot for the Titans.

Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson has historically performed very well against Tennessee. He’s 3-1 in his career against the Titans and has thrown for 1,046 yards and 10 touchdowns in those games.

The Titans aren’t bad against the pass, but they don’t generate much pressure. Tennessee has a league-low five sacks in four games, which means Watson should have plenty of time to throw on Sunday.

On really short rest against a division rival who’s coming off a big win, this feels like a letdown spot for Tennessee. I expect Houston to keep this within a field goal and don’t mind sprinkling some on the moneyline.

Leg 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 vs. Green Bay 

This line opened at Green Bay -3 and has been dropping ever since. I have a feeling Tampa Bay will close as a favorite, and I don’t disagree.

Green Bay has been an offensive juggernaut through the first quarter of the 2020 season. The Packers lead the league in points scored and are averaging 6.8 yards per play. But let’s talk a little bit about who they’ve played.

The Packers have a very good offense, but they’ve also beaten up on some of the worst secondaries in the league. Three of Green Bay’s four wins have come against Minnesota, Detroit, and Atlanta, three teams who have given up 34 touchdown passes combined this season. The other win came against a Saints defense that was banged up.

The Buccaneers should be the stiffest test Green Bay has faced. Tampa Bay’s secondary is allowing a respectable 6.1 yards per pass attempt and has surrendered only seven touchdowns this season.

The critical matchup will be Tampa’s front seven against Green Bay’s offensive line. The Buccaneers rank fourth in the league with 17 sacks and have generated pressure on 27.7% of their opponents’ dropbacks. Meanwhile, Rodgers has only been sacked three times in four contests. Tampa Bay has allowed a league-best 2.7 yards per rush this season, which means it could be tough sledding for Aaron Jones. The loss of Vita Vea hurts, but Tampa has enough talent up front to overcome his absence.

Defensively, Green Bay isn’t anything special. The Packers are allowing 4.8 yards per rush (25th in the NFL) and 6.8 yards per pass attempt (22nd in the NFL). The pass rush is led by one man, Za’Darius Smith, who has five of Green Bay’s 12 sacks on the season.

While Green Bay is coming off their bye, the Bucs have had the benefit of a long week to prepare after losing last Thursday night to Chicago. Chris Godwin will hopefully be back from a hamstring injury to take the pressure off Mike Evans in the passing game. The Packers will also have Davante Adams back from injury, but the Packers lack much else behind him on the receiving depth chart, unless you’re a Robert Tonyan believer.

I’m putting faith in Tom Brady to bounce back and remember what down it is in crunch time. I also expect Tampa’s front seven to make Rodgers uncomfortable enough to slow down the machine. Give me Brady and the Bucs in a buy-low spot.

Leg 3: San Francisco 49ers +3 vs. Los Angeles Rams 

Speaking of buy lows… the 49ers have lost two straight at home in embarrassing fashion. Think they’ll be a little extra motivated for a critical game against a division rival?

I’m giving Jimmy Garoppolo a mulligan for his miserable performance against Miami last week. But Kyle Shanahan will likely keep a tight leash. Garoppolo will need to be sharp against a Rams defense that has been the stingiest against the pass on a yards-per-attempt basis.

However, Los Angeles’ average linebacker play could be the difference in this game. The Rams have struggled to cover tight ends this season, allowing 25 catches on 43 targets for 179 yards and three touchdowns to opposing tight ends. That could spell trouble against George Kittle.

And while Los Angeles ranks 11th in the league with 532 rushing yards allowed, that aggregate is a bit misleading. The Rams are allowing 4.7 yards per carry (24th in the NFL) on just 113 carries, the eighth-fewest in the NFL.

On the other side of the ball, I’m expecting San Francisco to bottle up the Rams, who have quietly become the second run-heaviest team in the NFL behind Cleveland. Despite its rash of injuries, the 49ers have only allowed 3.8 yards per attempt and are still getting pressure on 30.1% of their opponents’ dropbacks, the third-best rate in the league. San Francisco should generate plenty of pressure on Jared Goff, who simply buckles under duress.

I’m betting on the 49ers to come out firing after a horrible two-game losing streak. Take the 3 and maybe throw a few bucks on the moneyline.

Parlay Odds: +578

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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.