NFL Parlays & Picks: Best Bets for Conference Championship Playoffs (2026)
The NFL is into Conference Championship weekend. It follows a Divisional Round that saw all four betting favorites advance, while going 3-1 on the point total over.
Chicago’s late-game heroics pushed the Los Angeles Rams to the brink of elimination before Caleb Williams threw a third interception to end the Bears’ Cinderella run. Denver and Buffalo gave us a highly entertaining matchup that featured a controversial call in overtime, leading to the Broncos drilling a short walk-off field goal to host the AFC Championship Game without their starting quarterback, Bo Nix, due to injury.
Seattle’s opening kickoff return for a touchdown gave the Seahawks permanent momentum, throttling the San Francisco 49ers 41-6 as a touchdown favorite. Then, Drake Maye and the New England Patriots overcame Houston’s second-ranked scoring defense, as the second-year signal-caller threw three touchdowns to set up a matchup on the road against Denver.
My NFL Parlays & Picks: Best Bets for Divisional Round Playoffs (2026) settled 0-2. My picks went 1-3 SU, with the Los Angeles Rams moneyline cashing at a juicy -205 odds. Buffalo nearly pulled off the road upset, while the 49ers never came close to covering +7.0. Under 45.5 points nearly came home as a win in the 49ers vs. Seahawks game, but Kenneth Walker’s third rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter settled that as a third loss.
It’s time to shake off the Divisional Round losses and look ahead to the Conference Championship slate. I’ve got two early week parlays below. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NFL betting analysis and free picks.
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NFL Early Week Parlays: Conference Championship Playoffs
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Parlay 1 (-104)
Leg 1: Denver Broncos Under 17.5 Total Points (-115)
Denver’s going to prepare for its AFC Championship appearance with QB2 Jarrett Stidham set to make his season debut in relief of an injured Bo Nix. Stidham has a big task going up against New England’s stout defense.
The Patriots have held the Chargers and Texans to 16 or fewer points in both playoff wins. Now, New England gets to impose its will against Stidham, who will have minimal time to prepare for this high-stakes matchup.
Sean Payton and Mike Vrabel are both well-respected head coaches in the NFL. This will be a chess match between Payton’s offensive guru ability against Vrabel’s ability to contain and shut down an opposing offense.
The edge goes to Vrabel’s Patriots. They just recorded four interceptions against C.J. Stroud in the Divisional Round. Yes, Denver has scored over 17.5 points in eight straight matchups, but that was with Nix under center.
Let’s side with New England’s fourth-ranked scoring defense and fade the Broncos offense. We’re going to start our first NFL Conference Championship parlay by betting on the Broncos to go under 17.5 total points.
Leg 2: New England Patriots Moneyline (-240)
Drake Maye took a massive leap in his development during his second season in the NFL. The Patriots’ signal-caller wound up being an NFL MVP betting favorite for a stint of this season, and he’s been able to extend his accuracy and high-quality play against a pair of top-tier defenses in the playoffs.
Maye also benefits from playing on a team with a top-four scoring defense. Josh McDaniels is a veteran OC, and Vrabel is an experienced head coach who has already elevated the Patriots’ culture during his first year with the franchise.
New England has only lost once since Week 3. That came against the Buffalo Bills in a back-and-forth shootout during Week 15. The Patriots have scored 28 or more points in six of their past seven outings, so they won’t back down against a Denver defense that has surrendered 26 or more points to three of its previous five opponents.
We’re going to boost our AFC Championship parlay to -106 odds by inserting the Patriots moneyline as the second leg at -240 odds.
Parlay 2 (+265)
Leg 1: Los Angeles Rams Moneyline (+128)
The NFC Championship game is shaping up to be an electric finish between two NFC West rivals. The Seattle Seahawks will host the Los Angeles Rams for a second time, facing their divisional foe for the third time this season.
Oddsmakers are laying -2.5 with the Seahawks at home following their dominant 41-6 win over the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams just escaped Chicago with a 20-17 win, forcing three interceptions, while Matthew Stafford played a turnover-free game to keep Los Angeles in contention down the stretch.
During the Week 15 overtime loss in Seattle, the Rams had a chance to clinch the No. 1 seed but surrendered 16 points in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks would go on to score the tying touchdown in overtime and convert a walk-off two-point attempt to win 38-37.
This matchup will be determined by the Rams offense against the Seahawks defense. Los Angeles has scored 30.5 points per game this season, while Stafford threw three touchdown passes in both previous contests.
Puka Nacua is going to be the key for Los Angeles to win. The Rams’ second-year wideout is a versatile weapon who is elite at racking up yards after reception, while also turning carries into first downs and touchdowns.
The Rams’ defense has forced Seattle QB Sam Darnold into numerous miscues. He’s thrown six interceptions against Los Angeles in two matchups this season. The Rams were a bad matchup for Darnold in multiple appearances as Minnesota’s QB1 last season as well.
Rams head coach Sean McVay is going to stick to his heavy tight-end sets and attempt to establish the run, opening up play-action passes downfield with a veteran quarterback like Stafford.
Darnold won’t get bailed out this time against Los Angeles. The Seahawks’ run game will be contained, unlike its dominant showing against the 49ers, so let’s bet on the Rams to win outright on the moneyline at plus odds for the first leg of our NFC Championship parlay.
Leg 2: Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110)
McVay leaned heavily on Rams RB Kyren Williams against the Bears in the Divisional Round. Williams finished with over 20 carries and two rushing touchdowns, supplying most of the points for Los Angeles.
He’s scored a rushing touchdown against Seattle during the Rams’ first matchup at SoFi Stadium. Williams was kept out of the end zone in Seattle during Week 15, but that was due to Blake Corum siphoning goal-line carries.
We didn’t see Corum handle many touches against the Bears. Williams should be in line for another big workload on Sunday, creating value on his anytime touchdown scorer prop.
Seattle has allowed Los Angeles to log 119 or more rushing yards in both matchups. Expect another run-centric game plan from McVay, chewing game clock and methodically moving the football into the red zone, where Williams will find the end zone either as a ball carrier or receiver.
Williams has scored three touchdowns in two playoff games. He’ll continue to be the motor of the Rams’ offense, so let’s boost our NFC Championship parlay to +265 odds with Williams’ anytime touchdown scorer prop at +110 odds.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.