NFL Picks Against the Spread and Over/Under: Week 10 (2020)
Boy, that was a brutal Week 9. We saw bad beats, upsets and even Joe Flacco looking…elite? There always seems to be late week COVID news, which is why there are even more Sunday morning bets than usual this season, resulting in a lot of late week line movement. Keep that in mind down the stretch of this NFL season.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
The forecast is calling for rain and “dangerous winds.†This only favors Cleveland here. Clearly, the pass defense is their weakness. If the wind is strong, that helps cover that up a bit. On top of that, it looks like Texans’ starting running back David Johnson will be out with a concussion, hurting their ground game. The Browns, however, get Nick Chubb back, and they should run all over this Texans team, which gives up the second-most yards per carry in the league (5.1)
Pick: Browns -3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (Over 49)
Jacksonville’s defense continues to struggle, as they give up the second-most yards per play (6.4), third-highest completion percentage (70.15%), and allow an average of 4.5 yards per carry (though this is skewed, as opposing offense are often in clear run-heavy situations). They will have a tough time stopping a Packers offense that averaged 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. While Jacksonville’s defense has been bad, Green Bay’s is right there with them. The Packers allow the second-highest completion percentage in the league (70.28%) and a below-average 6.0 yards per play. The over has hit in six of the last nine games for the Jaguars. They scored 25 points last week, and that should would be plenty for the over to hit here.
Pick: Over 49
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants (Over 44)
Suddenly, Carson Wentz has some weapons. Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert returned last game, and both should be more involved in this game. Running back Miles Sanders is expected to make his return and receiver Alshon Jeffery will be making his season debut. Philadelphia is also expected to have their big right tackle Lane Johnson available. The Giants allow the fourth-highest completion percentage, at 69.54%. Also, since 2016 (when Doug Pederson became coach), the total has hit the over in 55.6% of the Eagles’ divisional games and 66.7% of their games as an away favorite. With the Giants scoring 23 points in back-to-back weeks, the over should hit here, regardless of the weather.
Pick: Over 44
Washington Football Team (+4.5) at Detroit Lions
While I’m not excited about an Alex Smith-led Washington team, I don’t think the Lions can beat anyone by more than a field goal with Kenny Golladay out. Washington will turn up the volume on their pass rush, shown by their five sacks on Daniel Jones last week. They should be in Matthew Stafford’s lap often on Sunday. While the Lions could have success with the running game, Washington should also have plenty of success on offense. Smith passed for 325 yards against a Giants defense that is more talented than Detroit’s. The Lions also allow 4.8 yards per rush, so this could quickly turn into the official coming-out game for Antonio Gibson. While the winner is a coinflip, Washington should keep it close enough to cover.
Pick: Washington +4.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Over 45.5)
With Big Ben starting at quarterback, the Steelers should have little problem moving the ball and scoring on the Bengals. Before the last game’s extreme wind, Cincinnati had given up an average of 31.7 points in the previous three games. They also allow the third-most yards per play in the NFL (6.3). While the Steelers defense is talented, this team as a whole likes to keep games competitive, and the Bengals offense has been solid, due to the number of weapons at Joe Burrow’s disposal. They have averaged 30.7 points over their past three games, and they are coming off a bye. The total has also hit the over in four of the Bengals’ last five games. With this total dropping a few points throughout the week, this seems to be the point to now bet the over.
Pick: Over 45.5
Week 9 Results: 1-4
Season to Date: 20-24-1
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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow his work at FlurrySports.