NFL Picks Against the Spread and Over/Under: Week 11 (2020)
It’s always nice to start the week with an exciting game, and we got one on Thursday Night Football. Hopefully, that sets the tone for the rest of NFL Week 11, following a week with bad weather and bad beats. Let’s cross our fingers and hope for positive forecasts this weekend. There always seems to be late-week COVID news, which is why there are even more Sunday morning bets than usual this season, resulting in a lot of late-week line movement. Keep that in mind down the stretch of this NFL season.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
I would be willing to take nearly any point spread with the Chiefs this week. Their lone loss of the season came against the Raiders. Andy Reid also continues to bring up the Raiders’ victory lap in their bus that mocked the Super Bowl champs, as if they needed any other motivation. Reid-coached teams are also 17-7 against the spread after a bye. With the Raiders’ defense also all quarantined and doing installs virtually, the Chiefs could run up the score.
Pick: Chiefs -7.5
Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at Detroit Lions
Teddy Bridgewater is likely out this week, but I do not believe it is much of a step down to P.J. Walker if any. Walker is best known for being an MVP candidate in the XFL. He is a dual-threat with an absolute cannon of an arm. He also played under Matt Rhule in college and knows this system well. Detroit will struggle to contain him. On the other side, the Lions are dealing with a thumb injury to Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay will likely not be fully 100 percent in this game, and rookie running back D’Andre Swift has been ruled out. The Swift injury is what pushes me over to the Panthers’ side.
Pick: Panthers +2.5
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Cleveland Browns
Myles Garrett will be out for the Browns in this game, which is a massive loss. With the Eagles’ pass catchers getting healthier, Carson Wentz actually having time to throw will bring success in this game. There have also been many people bringing up the Eagles’ run defense struggling this season. Well, that’s not true. While mobile quarterbacks have given them issues, they allow just 3.4 yards per carry to running backs. I believe they hold fairly tough against the Browns’ running game, forcing this to be a quarterback battle between Wentz and Baker Mayfield. It may not be pretty, but the Eagles should cover.
Pick: Eagles +3
New England Patriots (-1.5) at Houston Texans
The Houston Texans have given us zero sign that they are capable of slowing down a running game. They have allowed 5.2 yards per carry, which is the worst in the league. Obviously, we know running the ball is the Patriots’ strength, and I expect them to milk the clock for all it’s worth with that. They’re not much better against the pass, allowing the fifth-best completion percentage. Defensively, the Patriots will also play conservatively, letting the Texans check down and move the chains until they either make a mistake or get to the red zone. I trust the Patriots to make fewer mistakes and finish their drives with a score more often than not. I can’t say the same for Houston.
Pick: Patriots -1.5
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Denver Broncos
Drew Lock has taken some practice reps and could play for the Broncos. This seems to make the situation for the Dolphins even better. Miami is tied for second in forced turnovers per game (1.7), while the Broncos are dead last in giveaways per game (2.3). With the Broncos being pretty average in most defensive categories, due to the injuries they have suffered, it looks like Tua Tagovailoa will get another win and continue to make his case for Rookie of the Year, despite the late start.
Pick: Dolphins -3.5
Week 10 Results: 2-2-1
Season to Date: 22-26-2
View the top deposit bonuses and promo codes for each sportsbook >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow his work at FlurrySports.