NFL Picks Against the Spread and Over/Under: Week 12 (2020)
Happy Thanksgiving, Black Friday weekend, and start to all things Christmas! We have an interesting slate of games coming up on Sunday, with COVID news being as wild as ever. Surely, we have not heard the rest of the COVID news and seemingly everyone is listed as questionable on every team, so expect a lot of late-week line movement and early Sunday sharp action. Let’s take a look at where the odds are currently and make some picks.
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Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5)
The Cleveland defense is in rough shape for this game. It appears Sione Takitaki and Myles Garrett will both be out with COVID. Denzel Ward also suffered a calf injury and is out for a couple of weeks. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have multiple receivers listed as questionable, so we will need to watch the injury report here. Still, Mike Glennon should be able to exploit a beat-up Browns defense. On the other side, the Jaguars’ biggest weakness is their pass defense. Will Baker Mayfield be able to take advantage enough to win by two scores? With a cool 90 percent of the money on the Browns, I’m willing to play the numbers and bet Jacksonville to cover.
Pick: Jaguars +6.5
New York Giants (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Giants were playing better before their break and the Bengals are trending in the opposite direction. Burrow was the only thing making them look respectable. Cincinnati allows 5.0 yards per carry, which is the second-most in the league. The Giants should be able to establish the run, then mix in downfield shots to put up points and cover the spread. Meanwhile, the Giants’ eighth-ranked run defense should put a lot of pressure on Brandon Allen.
Pick: Giants -5.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-4.5)
The Chargers’ lack of halftime adjustments is concerning. They average 14.9 points scored (T-No. 8 in NFL) and 10.9 points allowed (No. 6) in the first half of games. The Chargers fail to make adjustments, then average 11.1 points scored (T-No. 20) and 15.8 points allowed (No. 29) in the second half. If they are not going to adjust to Josh Allen and try to confuse him, Allen will get his and win this game. Buffalo is also coming off their bye week, following the last-second loss as a result of the Cardinals’ hail mary. They should be motivated to get back on the field, which should lead to a fast start.
Pick: Bills -4.5
New Orleans Saints (-6) at Denver Broncos
The Saints were impressive last week. Yes, Taysom Hill made some plays and flashed the potential that Sean Payton clearly sees in him. However, the defense stole the show. They finished the day with a ridiculous eight sacks. If they continue to get pressure in this game, it will be tough for the Broncos to do much of anything. Drew Lock is among the worst quarterbacks in the league under pressure. Of the quarterbacks that have played at least 20 percent of the snaps, he has the second-lowest passer rating under pressure (24.8), trailing only Jake Luton. He also only has a 31.8 percent completion rate and has thrown two touchdowns to six interceptions when pressured. I like the Saints to keep bringing the heat.
Pick: Saints -6
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (Under 44)
We’ve seen this point total drop a couple of points already, and for good reason. Going off the previous pick, the Saints should continue to bring the heat and make Lock struggle. The Saints have also given up a combined 25 points over their past three games. With the Saints going more run-heavy on offense with Taysom Hill, they are likely to keep the clock moving and score under their average as well. Much like New Orleans’ 24-9 win last week, we could see another low-scoring, dominant win.
Pick: Under 44
Week 11 Results: 1-4
Season to Date: 23-30-2
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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow his work at FlurrySports.