NFL Picks Against the Spread and Over/Under: Week 13 (2020)
Following a week filled with online shopping, hopefully, you have a little money left in your budget to bet with this weekend and make this slate of games even more interesting. Still, with two games on Monday and another on Tuesday, it should be another exciting, long week of football. Surely, we have not heard the rest of the COVID news for the week, and there is plenty of injury updates we are waiting for, so expect a lot of late-week line movement and early Sunday sharp action. Let’s take a look at where the odds are currently and make some picks.
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Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) vs. Houston Texans
Let’s keep this simple. What do the Texans have on offense? Following the Will Fuller suspension, Brandin Cooks is their only outside receiver, and he is 5-10. Many are expecting Keke Coutee to play Fuller’s role, which is just not going to happen. It will likely be rookie Isaiah Coulter getting his first NFL snaps and seeing the biggest boost. So, there’s not much. Defensively, the Texans give up a league-high 4.9 yards per carry, and they just lost their only good cornerback. The Colts will bounce back here.
Pick: Colts -3.5
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears (-3)
While teams typically get a boost following the firing of an incompetent head coach, the Bears are in a must-win game, they are at home, and they are still facing a terrible Lions team. Mitch Trubisky has historically played well against the Lions, tossing 12 touchdowns to one interception over the past four meetings. Obviously, the biggest difference in this game is the Bears’ defense at home. They continue to be an incredible unit and have held opponents to a 32.8% third-down conversion rate tied for the best in the league. As of Friday, D’Andre Swift has still not practiced, and Kenny Golladay appears to be 50/50. If both miss, they have zero chance to cover. If they are ruled active, we could see this line drop below a field goal, which is where I would love to pull the trigger.
Pick: Bears -3
Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans (Under 53.5)
This is shaping up to be an old school, ground-and-pound type of game. Yet, it currently is the highest projected total of the week. The Titans put up 45 points against the Colts and 30 against the Ravens. That’s great, but both teams were missing their best run defenders up front. Cleveland allows 4.1 yards per carry, which is tied for the ninth-fewest. Meanwhile, the Browns will definitely be pounding the rock since trusting Baker Mayfield to throw it around would be a death sentence at this point.
Pick: Under 53.5
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
While I don’t think the Saints sack Matt Ryan eight times again, this defense is playing out of its mind. It doesn’t seem like Julio Jones will go, which makes their matchup much easier. Meanwhile, Taysom Hill will pass much more this week, and the Falcons’ pass defense is nowhere near as good as the Raiders made them look. This line looks to be an overreaction of both teams’ games last week. However, there was no reason for the Saints to do anything but run last week. The only way Denver would have won was if there was a pick-six. Look for the Saints to look solid yet again.
Pick: Saints -2.5
Washington Football Team vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Washington has the clear rest advantage over Pittsburgh, but it’s tough to have any confidence in them here. Antonio Gibson will likely see the sideline more often than not, with Washington needing J.D. MicKissic’s pass protection so Alex Smith doesn’t get killed. That takes one of the few playmakers off the field. The Steelers should double Terry McLaurin and generate enough pressure to limit any other passing options. Washington doesn’t have enough offense, and I think Mike Tomlin gets his team to play much better, following a poor Wednesday performance.
Pick: Steelers -7
Week 12 Results: 4-1
Season to Date: 27-31-2
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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow his work at FlurrySports.