NFL Picks Against the Spread and Over/Under: Week 14 (2020)

by Zach Brunner |
Dec 12, 2020

Week 14 kicked off with the New England Patriots essentially being eliminated from playoff contention. That shows you just about anything can happen in the NFL in 2020, and it likely is setting the tone in what is shaping up to be a crazy, competitive week. There has been relatively little COVID news this week, with the largest spread seemingly in Carolina. Surely, we have not heard the rest of the COVID news for the week, and there is plenty of injury updates we are waiting for, so expect a lot of late-week line movement and early Sunday sharp action. Let's take a look at where the odds are currently and make some picks.

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Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

It’s the Andy Dalton revenge game, as he heads back to his former home, facing the team that benched him on his birthday. The majority of Dallas' offensive struggles this season have stemmed from the offensive line injuries. The Bengals have the second-worst sack percentage in the league (2.95 percent). If Dalton is given a clean pocket all game long, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup are all going to eat. Cincinnati allows 7.2 yards per pass attempt and 4.7 yards per carry, both of which are in the bottom seven of the league. I don’t think Brandon Allen and his 58.3 percent completion rate will provide enough offense to keep the score close.

Pick: Cowboys -3.5

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

The Buccaneers are coming off their bye week, so hopefully, they are no longer the “really tired team” that Bruce Arians labeled them as a few weeks ago. This matchup looks perfect for a bounce-back spot. The Vikings travel to the hot, humid Tampa climate. They will put their poor, inexperienced cornerbacks against the weapons of Tampa, which may be the largest mismatch of the weekend. As for the Vikings offense, they may struggle to run against the strong defensive front of Tampa, and I do not think they have the personnel necessary to get the ball out quickly on short routes, which is the way to beat the Bucs. If Minnesota gets down early and Dalvin Cook isn’t effective, they have zero chance.

Pick: Buccaneers -6.5

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (+1)

The Houston defense is one of the worst in the league. They allow 6.0 yards per play, which is the third-worst in the league. Houston allows a 68.6 percent completion rate, and this will likely get even worse without top cornerback Bradley Roby in the lineup. Still, the run defense is the biggest weakness, allowing 4.9 yards per carry, the second-worst in the league. That said, Chicago's weakness is their offense, but they have put up 55 points over the past two weeks. If the Mitch Trubisky-led offense can move the ball with success, this puts their strong defense in better situations, giving them a clear edge at home.

Pick: Bears +1

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders defense is really struggling, giving up an average of 35.3 points per game over their last three matchups. This is bad news for them with a Colts team coming to town that is starting to click offensively. T.Y. Hilton has turned in two solid games in a row, as has Jonathan Taylor, who has totaled over 100 yards in back-to-back games. While Las Vegas is getting Josh Jacobs back, he has struggled with efficiency this season, averaging under four yards per carry in his last two games. He also faces a Colts defense that is tied for third-best in yards per carry allowed (3.8). If the running game does not get going for the Raiders, I do not trust Derek Carr to get it done by himself against this talented Colts defense. The Colts will get another win, as they fight for the top spot in the AFC South.

Pick: Colts -3

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (+3)

It looks like Arizona’s offense has regressed back to where they were last season. Kyler Murray doesn’t look healthy, and he is also not throwing the ball downfield. Due to their pace of play, these offensive inefficiencies are killers to their team, since it doesn’t give their defense enough time to recover. Meanwhile, the Giants are hitting their stride and running with effectiveness. Last week, they ran the ball 31 times and averaged over six yards per carry. I expect the same to happen here, keeping the Cardinals offense off the field. Meanwhile, the Giants’ defense is underrated overall. They are allowing just 22.1 points per game this season, and I think they have another good performance here.

Pick: Giants +3

Week 13 Results: 2-3
Season to Date: 29-34-2

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