NFL Picks Against the Spread and Over/Under: Week 16 (2020)
Merry Christmas and happy four days straight of NFL football! Don’t forget to place your bets or set your fantasy lineups for the Christmas Day game or the three-game slate we have lined up on Saturday. With all of the holiday festivities, there has been plenty of COVID-related news and other player news that is seemingly going overlooked. Surely, there will be more to come out that will be relatively quiet. So, keep your eyes out for news and line movement, as there will be plenty of last-second bets this week, especially on Saturday, as bettors remember there’s a full day of NFL ahead. Let’s take a look at where the odds are currently and make some picks.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9) at Detroit Lions
There is a lot to like about Tampa in this game. Let’s start with Matthew Stafford. The man is elite and as tough as they come. However, he was grimacing with pain last week, despite not getting hit a ton. Tampa will ramp up the pressure this week since they shouldn’t be overly afraid of the receiving weapons of Detroit. Next, Detroit will have zero chance at covering Tampa’s playmakers. On top of that, they don’t have a strong pass rush, so Tampa will let Rob Gronkowski be a receiving tight end this week instead of just blocking. The cherry on top of Detroit’s coaching staff chaos. Due to COVID, the interim head coach, defensive coordinator, and many other position coaches will not be in attendance. This is going to be a mess for Detroit.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (Under 49)
There is another quarterback switch for the 49ers, with C.J. Beathard being the starter this week. Beathard has started 10 games for the Niners in his career, leading them to a 1-9 record. Across those 10 starts, the 49ers averaged just 17.4 points per game. George Kittle may be making his return, but given the quarterback situation, we may see him block more than run routes. With Raheem Mostert out, the 49ers lack an explosive, breakaway runner. While Jeff Wilson is solid, he’s unlikely to have a massive scoring play. Instead, he’s good for moving the chains and keeping the clock moving.
The Cardinals have scored in the mid-20s in all three meetings Kyler Murray has had against San Francisco. The highest was 26. Given the projected game flow, I don’t expect them to go much over this, if at all. With them being favored by five points, we are asking Beathard and his team to score over 20 points, which I do not think happens.
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have been splitting quarterback snaps in practice between Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr, who apparently has a chance to play following his exit last week. We all thought that the groin injury would mark the end of his career as a Raider. It still could, and that’s what Carr is trying to prevent by playing. So, either we will see an injured, limited Carr at quarterback, or we will see Mariota, who wasn’t given full starter reps in practice. The Dolphins know they just need to stop Josh Jacobs and they’ll win this game. They are the best team at covering the spread this season, and I expect them to do it again in a must-win game.
Chicago Bears (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Chicago offense has done a complete 180, realizing the running the football actually has its benefits. David Montgomery has looked like the player that many hyped him up to be coming out of college. He has ran for 434 yards and five touchdowns over his past four games, adding another 137 yards and another touchdown as a receiver. The success in the running game has opened up play action for Mitch Turbisky, making his life a lot easier. This has led to three 30-point weeks in a row. The Jaguars, meanwhile, surprisingly was given the No. 1 overall draft pick last week, due to the Jets beating the Rams. With Doug Marrone’s job seemingly safe, he seems like someone willing to do what the front office wants, which is to continue making bad decisions to lose games. The Jaguars’ defense is too bad to shut down what Chicago is doing right now, and the Bears defense should make sure Gardner Minshew doesn’t take over the game.
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (-10.5)
The Ravens have their swag back, and the Giants have Colt McCoy, which is essentially is the opposite of swag personified. While, yes, the Giants defense is an underrated unit overall, they do not have the edge rushers needed to make Lamar Jackson uncomfortable in the pocket or contain him. The Ravens will continue to find offensive success and score points. The question remaining is how much the Giants’ offense is capable of doing. They failed to find the end zone last week, scoring only through two field goals. New York scored just seven points the week prior. They have been held under 20 points in four straight games. If they do not reach 20 this week, then the Ravens will cover.
Week 15 Results: 3-2
Season to Date: 36-37-2
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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow his work at FlurrySports.