NFL Picks Against the Spread and Over/Under: Week 5 (2020)

by Zach Brunner |
Oct 09, 2020

It’s another typical week in 2020, and we never know quite what to expect. We are currently supposed to get another two-game Monday Night Football slate, which is amazing, and we also could get some NFL football on Tuesday, if the Titans start enforcing mask rules. I’m sure more Dan Quinn-like objects will hit the fan before the Sunday, but all we can do is assess what we see and know right now.

Let's jump right into the best NFL picks of Week 5!

View consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 5 of the NFL >>

Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets (Over 47)

Ready for this hot take? I think the Jets get an upgrade at quarterback this weekend with Joe Flacco under center. The Cardinals’ secondary is a bit banged up, and the Jets are expected to return Le’Veon Bell to the lineup, which is huge, considering that he can do everything for this offense. In other words, the Jets should be able to move the ball. The Cardinals have looked terrible, but they at least should be able to move the ball against a Jets defense that allows 32.8 points per game, which is the third-worst in the NFL.

The over is 28-6-1 in early games this season, and I think this is the most likely early game for the over to hit.

Pick: Over 47

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6)

Following a head coach’s firing, especially a hated one, teams typically come together and have a solid performance. Houston also gets the benefit of facing a bad Jaguars team. The Texans have allowed Deshaun Watson to get sacked the most of all quarterbacks this season (4.0 times per game), but the Jaguars are the second-worst at getting sacks (1.0 per game). With the team coming together and Watson getting time to throw, the Texans should find their first win of the season and cover the spread at home.

Pick: Texans -6

Cincinnati Bengals (+12.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Joe Burrow and the Bengals are 3-0-1 against the spread this season, and they are feeling good off their first win of the season. The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson has been held out of practice so far with a knee injury. While he does not appear to be a threat to miss the game, he could be a bit limited, and he’s not going to do a ton of magic with his arm. Burrow has weapons all around him, and he is not afraid of the big moments or important matchups. Look for the Bengals to be annoying and keep it close.

Pick: Bengals +12.5

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons Over 53.5

After a poor performance by all accounts from Matt Ryan last week, I expect him to show up at home this Sunday, whether Julio Jones is active or not. However, we could see the line drop if Julio is ruled out, so watch for that. We discussed the trend of overs hitting for early games above, and this feels like another winner. The Panthers’ offense has tons of receiving weapons, like the Falcons, and Atlanta ranks second-worst in the league in yards allowed (448.2) and points allowed (34.2) per game. I don’t see either team really struggling to move the ball this week. They combined for 60 points the last time they met, and we could see a similar result here.

Pick: Over 53.5

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns (Under 47)

I had a trend for the early games, so here’s one for late games. The under is 11-3 in late games this season, and this seems like the best spot for an under to hit during this time slot. The Colts want to set the offense up through the run, as do the Browns, which means that clock should continue to run for most of the game. Unfortunately for Indianapolis, the Browns are a top-10 run defense. So the Colts may need to rely on Philip Rivers, T.Y. Hilton, and their three tight ends a lot more, none of whom I have any confidence in. Unfortunately for the Browns’ running game, they are without Nick Chubb, and they’ll face the top-graded interior defender in DeForest Buckner. The Colts’ passing defense also ranks first in yards allowed per attempt (5.4).

Pick: Under 47

Week 4 Results: 3-2
Season to Date: 11-8-1

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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.

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