NFL Picks Against the Spread and Over/Under: Week 9 (2020)
Week 9 in the NFL season already has had plenty of COVID news, with a handful of players sitting out of Thursday Night Football. We have also seen Matthew Stafford separated from his team and the Atlanta Falcons shutting down their facilities. There is more news likely coming before Sunday’s kickoff, so that’s fun. Let’s take a look at the best bets for this crazy Week 9. As always, watch the injury news, since there is plenty. Lines will be moving a lot, especially on Sunday morning.
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Buffalo Bills
We know the Seattle offense is nearly unstoppable right now, but it’s the defense that gets a boost this week. Jamal Adams returns to the lineup, which completely changes what this defense can do and call. On top of that, the Seahawks went out and traded for Carlos Dunlap, who will be a boost for the pass rush. These two additions should lead to a couple of big plays being made that wouldn’t have without them. On the other side, the Bills do not look great. They allow 4.7 yards per rush, which is the sixth-worst in the league. The Bills’ pass rush has also been inconsistent, at best. We can expect Josh Allen to make a couple of mistakes. If the Bills allow Seattle to run the ball effectively, and they cannot get pressure on Russell Wilson, I’m not sure Wilson makes many mistakes.
Pick: Seahawks -3
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
I don’t think there’s any question who wins if the same Vikings team we saw last week shows up to play. However, they have been one of the most inconsistent teams this season. Still, no Kenny Golladay for Detroit really hurts that offense, as does Matthew Stafford not practicing all week. The Lions will need to rely on their running game more. While Adrian Peterson returning to Minnesota is a great story, the Vikings’ 4.2 rushing yards per attempt allowed ranks 11th-best in the league. Minnesota will feed Dalvin Cook early, but the Vikings may also try to get the passing game going, with the Lions being bottom-half in yards per attempt allowed (7.1). Detroit also has a poor 3.91 percent sack rate, so Kirk Cousins shouldn’t be pressured too often this week. The Vikings’ strengths should match up well enough for them to cover in this game.
Pick: Vikings -4.5
Houston Texans (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
In the first meeting, Houston won by 16 points. While the game was closer than the score indicates, the Texans still put up 30 points in a good performance. I don’t trust the Jaguars to have much consistency, with Luton at quarterback. With the Texans able to key on stopping James Robinson first, I think they make enough stops on Jacksonville to clear this spread. In the three games since Bill O’Brien was fired, Deshaun Watson has passed for 1,002 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions, while the team has put up an average of 28.7 points. With Jacksonville giving up 31.4 points per game (No. 31 in NFL), Houston should have little trouble moving the ball and putting up points.
Pick: Texans -6.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5) at Dallas Cowboys
You don’t need me to convince you that the Steelers will win this game. However, this line seems too close, given the Cowboys will start yet another quarterback this week. They also may be without Ezekiel Elliott now too, after Kellen Moore said they are taking a “wait-and-see approach.†In a game that the Cowboys have no shot, it would make sense for them to sit or severely limit Zeke, in order to get him healthier for a late-season push in the NFC East. He also plays behind a struggling offensive line. The weakness of this line is the tackles, and the Steelers will be bringing rushers off the edge all game long. I expect six or more sacks, a defensive score and for this to cover.
Pick: Steelers -14.5
New England Patriots (-7) at New York Jets
Cam Newton is a better player on prime time football. We saw it earlier this season against the Seahawks. Bill Belichick also likes to make a statement. He has been doing that in the media recently, now he should have fun doing it in prime time against a division rival, who also happens to be worse than my local high school team. New England will find success running the ball, simply given how their team is built. What opens this game up is how terrible the Jets are against the pass. They allow a league-high 71.93 percent completion rate, which is ridiculous. They also allow 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which is the fifth-most. Assuming the Patriots passing game gets going a little bit, this could turn into a beat down.
Pick: Patriots -7
Week 8 Results: 2-3
Season to Date: 19-20-1
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