NFL Picks & Predictions: Bengals vs. Falcons (Week 9)

The NFL continues its international expansion with an inaugural matchup in Madrid, Spain, featuring the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons on Sunday morning.

The Bengals are 3-point betting favorites. Oddsmakers have the point total set at 52.5.

The Falcons have lost 3 of their last 4 games, including an ugly shutout loss in wet conditions against the Buccaneers in Week 8. Cincinnati has won 3 straight games, including a late rally to avoid a big upset at home with an overtime win against the Titans in their last outing.

I’ve found 3 of my favorite picks in the NFL Madrid Game between the Bengals and Falcons. Lock in these wagers in before tomorrow’s early 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff.

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NFL Madrid Best Bets: Bengals vs. Falcons

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Falcons +3.0 (+100)

The public is hammering the Bengals to win outright on the moneyline and at -3 on the point spread. Cincinnati is garnering 73 percent of spread bets, laying -3.0 as a field goal betting favorite on a neutral site field.

Joe Burrow has been undeniably great. Conversely, Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. just had a terrible performance, throwing 4 interceptions and failing to get the Falcons into the end zone in his previous start.

What’s the recipe? Feeding star running back Bijan Robinson carries. He’s facing a Bengals defense that is the eighth-worst run defense in expected points contributed (EXP) at -6.70.

Atlanta can keep Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and the Bengals’ explosive passing attack on the sideline by methodically moving the football downfield with Robinson in a plus matchup.

If the Falcons play this correctly, they can post an upset win, or at least cover as a field goal underdog in Madrid.

Bet on the Falcons +3.0 at even odds (+100) as the first wager in the 2026 NFL Madrid Game.

Bijan Robinson Under 3.5 Receptions (-140)

Although Robinson is going to be the motor of Atlanta’s offensive engine, he’s not a heavy target in the passing game. Robinson has logged 2 or fewer targets in 4 of 6 appearances with Penix as QB1.

Cincinnati’s run defense is vulnerable, so there isn’t a big need to use Robinson as a receiver out of the backfield. The Falcons have quality receiving threats like WR Drake London, WR Jahan Dotson, and TE Kyle Pitts, who will benefit from play-action off a strong rushing attack led by Robinson.

Lay a bit of juice and bet Bijan Robinson Under 3.5 Receptions at -140 odds.

Mike Gesicki 25+ Receiving Yards (-140)

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are Burrow’s top-tier targets at wideout. Bengals TE Mike Gesicki has built a strong rapport with the franchise quarterback in his third year with Cincinnati, hauling in 17 of 24 targets for 241 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Gesicki is a prime red zone target due to his steady hands and big frame at 6-6. He’s logged 5+ targets in 3 of 7 starts in 2026, including a 4-76-1 state line on 6 targets against the Titans.

Atlanta has surrendered 270+ passing yards in 5 of 8 games played this season. They only faced 3 pass attempts against the Buccaneers in Week 8, so it’s going to be a big adjustment against the arm talent and high-pass volume of Burrow.

Gesicki can get 25+ receiving yards with one catch. He’s finished with 25+ receiving yards in 4 contests this year.

Bet on Mike Gesicki 25+ Receiving Yards at -140 odds.

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