NFL Picks & Predictions: Patriots vs. Lions
The New England Patriots and Detroit Lions are headed to Munich, Germany. This will be the sixth NFL game in Germany since 2023, and the third in Munich at Allianz Arena. Bayern Munich has played their home games there since the start of the 2005-2006 season, but Drake Maye and Jared Goff will square off there this Sunday, at 9:30 a.m. EST. Check out our top NFL picks for Patriots vs. Lions.
- More NFL Betting Advice
- NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- Expert NFL Game Picks
- NFL Betting Strategy
- Best +EV NFL Picks
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
NFL Picks & Predictions: Patriots vs. Lions
Jared Goff Over 262.5 Passing Yards (-111 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jared Goff is coming off his lowest yardage output of the season. He only totaled 170 yards against the Dolphins and threw an interception for the second consecutive week. He had 176 passing yards in Week 8 against the Vikings, which is not surprising given their elite defense. Last week's game against the Dolphins was surprising.
The Patriots have a strong secondary on paper, with Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III, but have not been strong this season. Davis (knee) is not playing this week, however. Jordan Love and the Packers just torched this secondary for 372 yards through the air. Goff has the weapons to have a good day any given week, but this matchup is juicier than it seems.
Lan Larison Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+420 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Rhamondre Stevenson left in the third quarter against the Packers with an injury and did not return. He is dealing with a knee tendon issue and is expected to miss a few weeks. TreVeyon Henderson has missed the past two games because of an illness, with no clear timetable for returning. That leaves Corey Kiner and Lan Larison in the backfield.
Kiner has seen limited action this season, but has been efficient as a runner. He averages 4.9 yards per attempt, but only has two targets this season. Kiner should get the bulk of the carries, but Larison is an excellent pass-catcher out of the backfield. In his final year at UC Davis, he caught 62 passes for 847 yards and six touchdowns. The depleted Patriots' offense has to rely on someone, and Larison out of the backfield is a smart bet against the Lions defense, which allows 23.6 points per game.
Over 49.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)
The Patriots' defense looks good on paper, but they have not lived up to expectations this season. They allow 23 points and 328.6 total yards per game. The Lions are not any better. They allow 23.6 points and 355 total yards per game.
The problem for the Patriots is that the offense cannot keep them off the field. They are tied with the Colts with a -11 turnover differential. The Lions have a +3 turnover differential. Now that the stats are laid out, let's get to the injuries.
As mentioned, Davis is out for the Patriots on defense. That is a major blow, especially for how they play defense. They lean more into zone coverage instead of man-to-man. That should open the field for one of the Lions' playmakers, whether it's Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, or Sam LaPorta. New England still has to account for the most dangerous player on the field, Jahmyr Gibbs, in the backfield. The Patriots will have to keep up if they want to win this game.
Drake Maye has looked awful and amazing this season. Last week, he threw three interceptions against the Packers. That bumped his season total up to 11 interceptions, but he has 18 touchdowns in the air and three on the ground. He should bounce back this week against this matchup.
The Lions allow 260.9 passing yards per game, the most in the league. They've looked better recently, but have played some inept offenses. I expect them to show their true colors in Germany, which means both teams score points.