NFL Playoffs TD Scorers Picks & Predictions: Chargers vs. Texans (Wild Card Saturday)
During the regular season, I selected one player for each NFL game to back with Anytime Touchdown (ATD) and First Touchdown (FTD) bets. Now that the NFL Postseason is upon us, it is time to kick things up a notch. I will make three picks for each game covered.
I will choose one player from each team for anytime touchdown and first touchdown bets. Over half of my successful anytime touchdown picks scored his team’s first touchdown. I will also be making one longshot pick. Below are my picks for Saturday’s game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans.
I tracked these bets during the regular season using bet sizes of 0.4 units on anytime touchdown bets and 0.1 units on first touchdown bets. Whether you play one or all, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week’s best bets.
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Best NFL Wild Card TD Scorer Prop Bets: Chargers at Texans
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Who will score a touchdown in this week’s NFL Games? The Anytime Touchdown market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the quarterback who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today’s best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.
Los Angeles Chargers Touchdown Pick
- Anytime TD Odds: +240 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First Team TD Odds: +550 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1200 at BetMGM
The first game of the NFL postseason features two stout defenses against the run. The Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans have combined to allow just 18 rushing touchdowns this season. Only 12 of those have come from opposing running backs. Because of that, I want to pivot towards pass-catching threats. For Los Angeles, I am picking wide receiver Quentin Johnston.
Houston plays zone defense at a top-10 rate. They fare well in that alignment. But Johnston has been no ordinary player at beating zone coverage. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Johnston led the NFL with eight touchdown receptions against zone coverage. He also averaged 2.28 yards per route run versus zone. That is the ninth-best mark among 41 wide receivers with at least 50 targets against zone coverage this year.
Johnston is coming off a monster game, as he caught 13 out of 14 targets for 186 yards last week. I like Johnston to find the end zone on Saturday, and we are getting excellent odds on all of his touchdown props.
Houston Texans Touchdown Pick
- Anytime TD Odds: +155 at Fanatics
- First Team TD Odds: +370 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +900 at Fanatics
Los Angeles is similar to Houston in terms of tendencies in pass coverage. They play zone coverage at a top-five rate and have performed at an above-average level in that alignment. However, there is reason for optimism regarding Texans wide receiver Nico Collins.
Collins is an elite wideout. He scored seven touchdowns in just 12 games this season. And while he is known for his ability to beat man coverage, he has also excelled against zone. Collins averaged 2.74 yards per route run versus zone coverage this year. That was the fourth-highest number among those same 41 wide receivers with at least 50 targets against zone coverage.
Collins also has unique home and road splits, which may work in his favor on Saturday. Collins scored at least one touchdown in five out of six Texans home games this season. That is the continuation of a trend that began last year with the emergence of quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Collins scored at least once in seven out of 10 home games last season. That includes a score in last year’s Wild Card game, which was also a first team touchdown. The fourth-year pro has a great chance to keep both trends alive in this game.
Longshot Touchdown Pick
- Anytime TD Odds: +480 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First Team TD Odds: +1000 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +2200 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Undoubtedly, the Chargers know how significant a threat Nico Collins is, especially in scoring territory. They may sell out to make someone else beat them, especially considering Houston is without Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. In Houston’s last two regular season games since Dell’s season-ending injury, John Metchie led the team with 12 total targets.
And while that is partly because Collins played sparingly last week, Metchie had eight targets in Houston’s Week 17 game versus the Baltimore Ravens. At these prices, throwing a buck or two on Metchie to score a touchdown makes a lot of sense.