NFL Playoffs TD Scorers Picks & Predictions: Commanders vs. Buccaneers (Wild Card Sunday)
During the regular season, I would select one player for each NFL game to back with Anytime Touchdown (ATD) and First Touchdown (FTD) bets. Now that the NFL Postseason is upon us, it is time to kick things up a notch. I will be making three picks for each game covered. I will choose one player from each team for anytime touchdown bets and first touchdown bets. Over half of my successful anytime touchdown picks this year scored his team’s first touchdown. I will also be making one longshot pick.
I tracked these bets during the regular season using bet sizes of 0.4 units on anytime touchdown picks and 0.1 units on first touchdown picks. Whether you play one or all, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week’s best bets. Below are my picks for Sunday’s Wild Card matchup between the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
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Best NFL Wild Card TD Scorer Prop Bets: Commanders at Buccaneers
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Who will score a touchdown in this week’s NFL Games? The Anytime Touchdown market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the quarterback who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today’s best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.
Washington Commanders Touchdown Pick
- Anytime TD Odds: +185 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First Team TD Odds: +550 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1300 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The incredible rookie campaign of Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels began in Tampa Bay. In that game, Daniels ran 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns. That outing set the tone for Daniels, who trailed only Lamar Jackson among quarterbacks in rushing yards this year. After a drop-off in rushing production around midseason, Daniels increased his rushing output towards the end of the season.
Excluding last week’s game in which Washington pulled their quarterback early, Daniels ran for at least 66 yards and/or a score in five consecutive games. The Commanders may also look to get Daniels some carries early to get him into the flow of his first career NFL playoff game.
Daniels’ two rushing touchdowns in Week 1 were among the six rushing scores Tampa Bay allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season. Only Dallas and the New York Jets gave up more rushing touchdowns to enemy signal-callers than the Buccaneers. In Sunday night’s matchup, Daniels could again get the best of the Buccaneers’ on the ground. He is my preferred touchdown pick on the Washington side in this game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Touchdown Pick
- Anytime TD Odds: -143 at BetRivers
- First Team TD Odds: +270 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +500 at BetMGM
Jayden Daniels was not the only rookie to lead his team in rushing yards in the Week 1 meeting between these two teams. Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving paved the way for Tampa Bay with 62 yards on nine carries. In that game, incumbent running back Rachaad White carried the ball 15 times.
Over the second half of the season, Irving was the preferred backfield option in Tampa Bay. If you remove the Week 14 game in which Irving left early due to injury, the rookie running back registered at least 16 touches in seven straight games. He recorded at least 84 scrimmage yards in all seven outings and scored in five. This production should continue against a weak Washington run defense.
During the regular season, Washington allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs. They also gave up 16 touchdowns on the ground to opposing backs. That is tied for fifth-most in the NFL. Some of those numbers are the product of facing Saquon Barkley multiple times.
However, other primary backs have had success versus the Commanders in recent weeks, including Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons and Rico Dowdle of the Dallas Cowboys. The two backs combined for 162 rushing yards and three touchdowns against Washington over the last two weeks. Irving will continue to keep the Buccaneers balanced on offense and find the end zone in this matchup.
Longshot Touchdown Pick
- Anytime TD Odds: +600 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First Team TD Odds: +1800 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +2900 at FanDuel Sportsbook
With his team’s playoff hopes hanging in the balance last week, Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield did not hesitate to tuck it and run when openings presented themselves. Mayfield posted career highs with nine carries and 68 rushing yards in Tampa Bay’s victory.
Washington has not generated much pressure on quarterbacks this year, but Mayfield was decisive when scrambling last week. He may have even been too quick to run the ball on occasion. Either way, a similar approach on Sunday night could lead to a Mayfield scramble toward the end zone. Mayfield has rushed for three touchdowns this year, so it would not be asking too much, given the odds involved, for him to do so again here.