NFL Playoffs TD Scorers Picks & Predictions: Rams vs. Eagles (Divisional Round Sunday)
I am continuing my revised method for making Anytime Touchdown (ATD) and First Touchdown (FTD) picks for the NFL Postseason. I will choose one player from each team for anytime touchdown, first touchdown bets, and one longshot pick. Last week, I hit at least one pick in all three games, including a First Touchdown and a longshot bet. Below are my picks for Sunday’s game between the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles.
I tracked these bets during the regular season using bet sizes of 0.4 units on anytime touchdown bets and 0.1 units on first touchdown bets. Whether you play one or all, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week’s best bets.
- NFL Player Prop Bets
- NFL PrizePicks Player Predictions
- NFL Consensus Odds
- NFL Expert Game Predictions
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Best NFL Divisional Round TD Scorer Prop Bets: Rams at Eagles
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Who will score a touchdown in this week’s NFL Games? The Anytime Touchdown market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the quarterback who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today’s best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.
Los Angeles Rams Touchdown Pick
- Anytime TD Odds: +150 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First Team TD Odds: +360 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1100 at DraftKings Sportsbook
This game features two elite defenses at preventing touchdowns from opposing running backs. The Los Angeles Rams have allowed 10 total scores to opposing running backs and just one in nearly two months. (More on that below.) And the Philadelphia Eagles have allowed an NFL-low five touchdowns to opposing running backs this year. Even though Rams running back Kyren Williams has been among the most consistent backs in the league, I need to go in another direction. The Eagles have given up 18 total touchdowns to wide receivers this season. That is in the middle of the pack among NFL teams. The Rams will likely have to throw to put up points against this defense. Because of that, I am picking Puka Nacua.
Nacua has emerged as Matthew Stafford’s go-to wide receiver. He averaged 90 receiving yards per game this season, while Cooper Kupp averaged just under 60. Nacua’s increased involvement has only resulted in four touchdowns in 11 games, but I trust the usage. Nacua has averaged 11.9 opportunities over his last nine games, including last week’s playoff win. Meanwhile, Kupp has just 10 total opportunities across his last four games. Philadelphia tends to keep their corners stationary, and all three primary cornerbacks are graded similarly in coverage. That means that volume should win since there is no glaring individual matchup advantage. Based on that, Nacua is my preferred Rams pick to score a touchdown.
Philadelphia Eagles Touchdown Pick
- Anytime TD Odds: +150 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First Team TD Odds: +500 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +850 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The biggest takeaway from Philadelphia’s first meeting with the Los Angeles Rams was that it was a historic effort from running back Saquon Barkley. Barkley scored twice while accumulating 302 scrimmage yards. There are a couple of ways you can look at this. One is that Barkley is in line for another big day on Sunday. That scenario is certainly possible, but a couple of factors are preventing me from selecting Barkley here.
First is the pricing involved. The best price for a Barkley Anytime Touchdown is -162 at Bet365. That price is -170 or worse on the more popular sportsbooks. The second scenario is that the Rams sell out to stop a Saquon sequel. To that point, Los Angeles has been excellent against the run since that previous meeting. In fact, Barkley’s 72-yard jaunt to seal Philly’s Week 12 win was the last rushing touchdown the Rams have allowed to a running back. They have not given up any touchdowns to a running back since Ty Johnson’s receiving score in Week 14. Because of this, I will pivot toward the Eagles’ wide receiver, A.J. Brown.
Brown scored in over half of his regular season games this year, finding the end zone seven times in 13 games. One of those games was the aforementioned contest in Los Angeles. In that game, Brown caught six of seven targets for 109 yards and a touchdown. Brown took advantage of a Los Angeles defense that has allowed the most yards to outside receivers this season. The veteran wideout lines up outside on over 80 percent of snaps, so he should continue to have favorable matchups on Sunday. Given these factors and the matchup, I am going with A.J. Brown as my favorite pick to score for Philadelphia.
Longshot Touchdown Pick
- Anytime TD Odds: +340 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First Team TD Odds: +850 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1600 at Bet365 Sportsbook
For my longshot touchdown pick in Sunday’s early game, I am going with Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert. The Rams ranked in the bottom 10 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns allowed to opposing tight ends this season. The Rams figure to focus first and foremost on Barkley and the run game. Their attention will most likely be drawn toward wideouts Brown and DeVonta Smith in the passing game. That could leave Goedert room to operate over the middle.
Goedert led the team with six targets last week on just 21 pass attempts from quarterback Jalen Hurts. The veteran only scored twice during the regular season. However, both of those scores came in his last five games. Game script and weather concerns may limit the amount at which Philadelphia throws the ball on Sunday. But Goedert is rounding into form after a late-season injury and could be poised to score again in a favorable matchup.