NFL Preseason Picks & Predictions: Week 1 (Friday)
Get comfy on the couch because Week 1 of the NFL preseason rolls on with three games on Friday night. It’s a time when positional battles are fought, and players hidden on the depth chart make a name for themselves. As unpredictable as preseason action can be, there’s still betting value to be found. Here’s a look at three of my favorite NFL preseason picks for Friday’s slate.
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Friday's Best NFL Preseason Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons
Intent is an important part of the NFL preseason. Denver head coach Sean Payton told reporters he plans to play his starters in order to “build a callus.” That does not include quarterback Bo Nix, who underwent ankle surgery in the offseason.
Take note that there’s a true QB2 competition behind him, though. Jarrett Stidham has thrown for over 1,400 yards in the NFL and started in last year’s AFC Conference Championship. Sam Ehlinger’s toughness and accuracy have been on display with rave reports in training camp.
As for the Falcons, they will usher in a new era under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Veteran quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Cooper Rush are expected to see the bulk of the snaps with Michael Penix Jr. working his way back from an ACL injury.
Neither signal-caller has spent time with Atlanta before, so it could take some time for them to learn the playbook and get into a rhythm. The Falcons haven’t had much success in the preseason lately, losing their last seven games by an average of 13 points.
It’s worth pointing out that Stidham and Ehlinger handled most of the reps for the Broncos during the 2025 preseason. The Broncos won all three contests by at least nine points, scoring 27+ points in each clash. I’ll back the road squad to cover the spread inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Pick: Broncos -4.5 (-102)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets
The biggest story to come out of Buccaneers training camp has been the nonexistent contract talks between the front office and quarterback Baker Mayfield.
The two-time Pro Bowler is not expected to suit up on Friday, leaving the game in the hands of Jake Browning, Connor Bazelak and Jalon Daniels. Browning enters 2026 as one of the more proficient backups in the NFL. The 30-year-old has racked up 2,707 passing yards and 18 touchdowns (15 interceptions) in 17 regular-season outings (10 starts).
Meanwhile, Bazelak has showcased a steady football IQ during his time with Tampa Bay, and Daniels flashed exciting dual-threat capabilities at Kansas. I like this trio to give the Jets a run for their money.
New York surrendered the second-most points per game (29.6) and eighth-most yards per game (355.6) last campaign. Defensive depth is not their specialty. The Buccaneers have tallied at least 14 points in seven of their previous nine preseason contests. Expect them to keep grinding until the final whistle.
Pick: Buccaneers Team Total Over 13.5 Points (-125)
Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders
There are many new faces in Miami. The Dolphins made multiple splashes in the offseason, hiring former Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley as head coach and signing quarterback Malik Willis to a three-year deal.
Familiar producers like wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and defensive lineman Bradley Chubb are now putting on their pads elsewhere. Friday offers fans a chance to see what Willis can bring to the table. The former third-round pick needs to begin building chemistry on the field.
Miami would also benefit from seeing a No. 1 WR emerge. Anticipate pass-catchers like Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert and Caleb Douglas running their routes with added motivation.
Washington head coach Dan Quinn has not made it clear whether his starters will play, but it would be surprising to see quarterback Jayden Daniels or any star defenders out there. All three of the Commanders’ preseason games in 2025 featured their opponent scoring the first touchdown. Trust Willis to lead a triumphant drive.
Pick: Dolphins to Score the First Touchdown (-145)