NFL Prop Bets: Week 3 (2019)
Another week of the NFL season brings another round of NFL prop bets! Like in Week 1, Week 2 brought a mixed bag of results. The Pittsburgh Steelers hit the over on 2.5 touchdowns despite James Washington not pulling in one. Sony Michel found the end zone once but we needed him to find it twice. Thankfully, Jacoby Brissett threw more touchdowns than Marcus Mariota to help salvage the week.
We have five NFL prop bets to target in Week 3 courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook. Where can we find value this week?
Total Touchdown Passes – Josh Allen Over 1.5 (+175)
I love the value with Josh Allen this week. While he has yet to throw multiple touchdowns this season, he is not incapable of doing so. He gets to face a Bengals’ defense that has allowed multiple passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks each of the first two weeks.
Look for Buffalo to find themselves in the red zone multiple times this week and for Allen to convert multiple drives using his arm to find six points. Take the almost 2/1 odds and thank me later.
Total Receptions – Le’Veon Bell Over 5.5 (-106)
This bet feels like free money. Le’Veon Bell has 16 catches on 19 targets through two weeks. In an offense that is clearly void of playmakers, he is one of the few bright spots.
Luke Falk will be under center for the Jets this week which is good news for Bell. Falk targeted the running back eight times when he came into the game. The new quarterback is known for his accuracy in the short to intermediate passing game.
With the Jets likely getting down early and needing to throw often, Bell should approach double-digit targets again this week and should easily clear 5.5 catches.
Player to score a touchdown – Sony Michel (-134)
As I mentioned above, the Patriots should roll in this contest with the Jets as they are three-touchdown favorites per DraftKings Sportsbook. This contest sets up for plenty of carries for Michel, especially with the release of Antonio Brown. When he has carried the ball 18 or more times, which has happened nine times in his NFL career, he has scored.
The over/under for carries in this contest is set at 17.5 (-115). I love the idea of betting both and going all-in on Michel. DraftKings Sportsbook won’t let you parlay these bets, so you will have to place individual bets.
Matthew Stafford – Over 274.5 Passing Yards (-115)
I expect a huge day from Matthew Stafford against the Eagles. Philadelphia has been atrocious against opposing passers. They are allowing the second-most passing yards (340/game) to opposing quarterbacks.
Stafford will have to throw in this contest as the Lions are on the road as a 5.5-point underdog. In Stafford’s only road contest this season he threw for 385 yards. I will gladly take a quarterback who will have to throw against a defense that has a ton of issues stopping the pass to eclipse 274.5 passing yards.
Total Receptions – Zach Ertz Over 6.5 (-118)
The Philadelphia Eagles enter this contest with a banged-up receiving core. Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson are unlikely to play in this game. As much as I like the potential of JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Nelson Agholor as dart throws for fantasy football, Ertz should be a primary focus of quarterback Carson Wentz.
Wentz has a special relationship with his tight end. Through 2 weeks, the duo has connected 13 times on 23 targets. If Ertz gets double-digit targets thrown his way, I would be pretty surprised if he doesn’t bring in at least seven.
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Kyle Robert is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @NotoriousKRO.