NFL Prop Bets: Week 4 (2019)
Welcome to NFL Prop Bets for Week 4. This week we target players who are poised for monster games and others who are expected struggle. But before we head forward, let’s look back at the week that was.
After starting the season 4-4 in the first two weeks, I went 1-4 in Week 3. It was definitely not what I was expecting. Shouts to Sony Michel for finding the end zone on Sunday. That said, let’s bounce back in a big way this week! Start by heading to DraftKings Sportsbook to see where we can find value this week.
Sony Michel – Under 50.5 rushing yards (-112)
There is so much going against Sony Michel in this spot. First, his production or lack thereof has left a ton to be desired. He has less than 15 yards rushing in two of the Patriots first three games. This week Michel has to face a Bills defense that has been awesome against the run including being in the top 10 in rushing yards allowed.
The Patriots will get James White back this week after missing the week prior with the birth of his child. Rex Burkhead should also see plenty of work as he has been efficient this season. I expect Tom Brady to utilize the short passing game and screen game in lieu of a straight-ahead rushing attack with Michel. This all sets up for a long day for Michel and the under cashing for bettors.
DeVante Parker – Over 2.5 Catches (-134)
I love the over for DeVante Parker this week to go over 2.5 catches. This season Parker has been heavily involved with 20 targets through the first 3 games. In fact, he is top five in air yards just behind names like Mike Evans, Hollywood Brown and Keenan Allen.
The switch to Josh Rosen only makes me feel better about Parker. While he has seen volume from both quarterbacks. I trust Rosen to be more efficient and more accurate with this offense.
The Chargers are going on the road and will once again be without Derwin James. They have struggled thus far without him ranking in the bottom 10 in passing yards allowed and receptions allowed. Parker will crush the over this week catching at least five balls and potentially more.
Kirk Cousins – Under 20.5 Pass Completions (-148)
The Minnesota Vikings have turned into a team that wants to run, run, and run some more as much as it annoys Stefon Diggs fantasy owners. When the Vikings are on schedule they are leaning heavily on the run game. When they get down Cousins is throwing more but it’s not pretty.
Thus far, Cousins has 15, 14, and 8 completions through his three starts. I expect a low scoring slugfest in Chicago this week allowing the Vikings to remain conservative. I would be pretty surprised to see Cousins thrown the ball 20 times let alone complete 20 passes. Take the under even with the heavy juice.
Marlon Mack – Score 2+ TDs (+300)
The Indianapolis Colts will lean heavily on running back Marlon Mack this week. They are home as a seven-point favorite against the Raiders and will likely be without TY Hilton. If the Colts cover or get close to it Mack should produce massive numbers.
Last year when these two teams met up in Oakland, Mack ran for 132 yards and 2 touchdowns. I would expect to see a similar performance this week. At 3/1 odds, I will happily take a shot on Mack finding the end zone twice again this week.
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Kyle Robert is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @NotoriousKRO.