NFL Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks: Monday (Super Wild Card)
The Eagles and Buccaneers are wrapping up the Wild Card Round tonight following the reschedule contest between the Steelers and Bills. The same-game parlay (SGP) pool of player props is vast. Let’s take a look at my top same game parlay picks for Monday’s NFL action.
Monday NFL Best Same Game Parlay Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills SGP
- Leg 1: James Cook Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Leg 2: Josh Allen Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Leg 3: Jaylen Warren Over 55.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
The Bills have flipped the script with Joe Brady as the offensive coordinator, turning into a run-first team. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Bills had a 54% situation-neutral rush rate in their final four games in the regular season.
James Cook has spearheaded Buffalo’s backfield, handling 74 of the backfield’s 107 rushing opportunities since Week 15. He converted his rush attempts into 333 rushing yards and 4.5 yards per carry, besting 66.5 rushing yards twice.
Cook has a favorable matchup on the ground. According to The 33rd Team, running backs have averaged 87 rushing yards per game at 4.6 yards per carry against the Steelers since Week 15, a span that includes the Ravens resting many starters and rotating Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and washed-up Melvin Gordon in Week 18. FantasyPros projects Cook to have 67.6 rushing yards.
Josh Allen will have a critical role in the running game, too. Brady has embraced using Allen’s legs, especially in the final two games of the regular season. According to The 33rd Team, Allen had eight and nine designed runs in Week 17 and Week 18, the second-highest and highest totals for the dual-threat quarterback this season. The bruising runner ran for 44 yards against the Patriots and 67 versus the Dolphins.
Allen’s also cranked up his rushing production in the playoffs. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Allen has averaged 52.1 rushing yards per game in eight career games in the postseason. In addition, mobile quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley had 45 and 40 rushing yards against Pittsburgh, respectively.
On the other side, Jaylen Warren is Pittsburgh’s game-script-proof running back, sharing early-down work with Najee Harris and owning the pass-catching gig. Since Week 15, Warren has rushed 40 times for 172 yards and hauled in 19 receptions for 98 receiving yards.
The second-year running back has exceeded 55.5 scrimmage yards twice in his past four games. However, once was when the Steelers lost, and both times he failed to surpass 55.5 scrimmage yards were in victories. Harris is equipped to tote the rock and protect the lead, but the Steelers are sizable underdogs, enhancing Warren’s potential for production at Harris’s expense. FantasyPros projects Warren to have 63.4 scrimmage yards against the Bills.
Parlay Odds: +490
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers SGP
- Leg 1: Baker Mayfield Over 219.5 Passing Yards (-165)
- Leg 2: Chris Godwin Over 4.5 Receptions (-145)
- Leg 3: Chris Godwin Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Leg 4: Dallas Goedert Over 4.5 Receptions (-175)
- Leg 5: Dallas Goedert Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-165)
Baker Mayfield has played through injuries lately. Fortunately, it hasn’t stopped him from posting stellar numbers. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he has completed 70.3% of his 128 passes since Week 15 for 1,110 yards, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, eight touchdowns and two interceptions.
The veteran quarterback had over 219.5 passing yards in three of his past four games. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Mayfield averaged 237.9 passing yards per game this season, with a median of 246.
He has a favorable matchup tonight against a leaky pass defense. According to The 33rd Team, the Eagles have allowed 234 passing yards per game since Week 15. Furthermore, this season, nine quarterbacks have exceeded 219.5 passing yards against the Eagles. Sam Howell and Dak Prescott had over 219.5 passing yards against the Eagles twice this season, pushing the total to 11 instances of quarterbacks passing for over 219.5 yards against Philadelphia. FantasyPros projects Mayfield to have 245.1 passing yards tonight.
Chris Godwin should be on the receiving end of many of Mayfield’s pass attempts. Since Week 15, Godwin was first on the Bucs in targets (31), receptions (25) and receiving yards (365). Since posting zero receptions in Week 13, Godwin has had five, 10, six, three and six receptions for 53, 155, 78, 81 and 51 receiving yards. Thus, he’s cleared 4.5 receptions in four of his previous six games and exceeded 54.5 receiving yards three times. Godwin can stay hot against a lousy second and projects to have 5.7 receptions and 65.3 receiving yards against the Eagles.
Dallas Goedert should be a standout pass-catching weapon on the other side. A.J. Brown is out, enhancing the opportunities for Philadelphia’s healthy pass-catchers. Goedert should soak up some of Brown’s vacated targets.
Additionally, the talented tight end has a Charmin-soft matchup. According to The 33rd Team, tight ends have barbecued the Bucs for 7.0 receptions per game and 75 receiving yards per game since Week 15. As a result, Goedert projects to have 4.8 receptions and 50.0 receiving yards tonight.
Parlay Odds: +420
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.