NFL Season Win Totals: BettingPros Staff Picks & Predictions (2023)
The NFL is a year-round business. While we don’t get to watch actual NFL games until the 2023 season kicks off in September, the off-field action never stops. The NFL just released the 2023 schedule last week, and we already have early lines for NFL Win Totals. We asked some of our experts to break down every team’s Win Totals Over/Under to give us consensus picks for each team.
Our very own Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice, Derek Brown, and Joe Pisapia took an early look at the lines and made their picks based on what we currently know about each team.
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2023 NFL Team Win Totals Over/Under Picks & Predictions
AFC East Team Win Totals
| TEAM / DIVISION | Over / Under | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| Miami Dolphins | 9.5 | Under | Over | Under | Over | Split |
| New England Patriots | 7.5 | Under | Under | Over | Under | Under |
| New York Jets | 9.5 | Under | Over | Over | Under | Split |
Buffalo Bills — Over 10.5 Wins
Buffalo has won the AFC East for three straight seasons, averaging 12.3 wins per season. They finished 1st in the AFC in point differential and second overall in Pythagorean Expected Wins (12) despite playing one fewer game. I’ll wait to see them get dethroned before jumping off the Bills Mafia bandwagon. – Erickson
Miami Dolphins — Split (9.5 Wins)
The betting markets don’t agree with me (MIA under 9.5 wins -120, DraftKings Sportsbook), but I don’t care. The Dolphins will field an explosive offense that will be one of the best in the NFL if Tua Tagovailoa can stay on the field. Miami could also trot out one of the best defenses in the NFL if Vic Fangio’s addition bears fruit. Last year the Dolphins allowed the 13th-lowest yards per play while ranking 14th in sacks. – Dbro
New England Patriots — Under 7.5 Wins
The New England Patriots have the toughest schedule based on Vegas’ forecasted win totals. It’s a tough scene for the once every-year AFC East champions, that find themselves at the bottom looking up at the rest of their division. The Patriots will be in for a rude awakening facing top-tier quarterbacks week in and out, something they did not have to deal with last season. Their 8 wins came versus Mitchell Trubisky, road Jared Goff, Jacoby Brissett, Zach Wilson x 2, Sam Ehlinger, Colt McCoy and Skylar Thompson/Teddy Bridgewater. Woof. – Erickson
New York Jets — Split (9.5 Wins)
Head coach Robert Saleh has turned the Jets’ defense into a fearsome unit, and now the arrival of QB Aaron Rodgers makes the Jets’ offense credible. The 39-year-old Rodgers might not be the same player he was in his prime, but he can still sling it. With a defense this good, Rodgers doesn’t need to be great — he just needs to be a capable game manager and a significant upgrade over Zach Wilson. – Fitz
AFC North Team Win Totals
| TEAM / DIVISION | Over / Under | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 11.5 | Under | Under | Under | Over | Under |
| Cleveland Browns | 9.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
Baltimore Ravens — Over 9.5 Wins
Baltimore should at least be competent on defense. They should gain the most ground in 2023 on the offensive side of the ball. A bevy of weapons surrounds Lamar Jackson with the additions of Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. Jackson has heard all offseason that he wasn’t worth the massive contract, could be overrated, is a subpar passer, and more. Jackson should light the league on fire this season, carrying the team over this projected win total. – Dbro
Cincinnati Bengals — Under 11.5 Wins
The Bengals’ 11.5 O/U is tied with the Chiefs for the highest among all teams. They barely hit the mark last season with 12 wins (note they had a game entirely canceled) despite a Pythagorean Expected win total of under 11 wins. With all members of the AFC North boasting much-improved rosters, the under is the play here – Erickson
Cleveland Browns — Under 9.5 Wins
What tends to get lost in Deshaun Watson’s horrible return last year is that he went 3-3 as the team’s starter, an improvement from Jacoby Brissett’s 4-7 record. However, even if Watson does return to form, double-digit wins is still a tough number to hit in the super competitive AFC North. 5 teams accomplished the feat in 2022, and the Browns feel like they are at least a tier away from the top contenders to achieve that status in 2023. HC Kevin Stefanski only has one double-digit wins season on his resume (11, 2020), and Watson boasts a 31-28 overall record as a starter. Just not enough working in their favor to his 10 regular season wins – Erickson
Pittsburgh Steelers — Over 8.5 Wins
Mike Tomlin has never finished with a losing record in his 16 seasons as the Steelers’ head coach, and he guided the Steelers to a 9-8 record last year despite having to break in a rookie quarterback and losing star defender T.J. Watt for nearly half the season. Pittsburgh aced the NFL Draft, with Georgia OT Broderick Jones a key piece in a refurbished offensive line. Bet on Tomlin to keep the Steelers above water yet again – Fitz
AFC South Team Win Totals
| TEAM / DIVISION | Over / Under | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Houston Texans | 6.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6.5 | Over | Over | Over | Under | Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9.5 | Over | Over | Under | Over | Over |
| Tennessee Titans | 7.5 | Over | Under | Under | Over | Split |
Houston Texans — Under 6.5 Wins
Only the Colts posted fewer expected wins than the Houston Texans (5) did in 2022. Considering Houston has yet to exceed four real wins in any of the last three seasons, it’s hard to be bullish on the over with another new rookie head coach at the helm. Pound the 6.5 under at -130 on DraftKings Sportsbook – Erickson
Indianapolis Colts — Over 6.5 Wins
Yes, the Colts only won four games last year, but this squad couldn’t be more different than the 2022 version. Anthony Richardson’s explosive duality replaces Matt Ryan and his pop gun arm. Jonathan Taylor will hopefully get back to his injury-free ways. The Jeff Saturday clown show experience is over, and the team now has a legit head coach with Shane Steichen. Improving by three wins this season should be achievable. – Dbro
Jacksonville Jaguars — Over 9.5 Wins
The Jaguars started out the season 4-8, before ripping off a 5-game win streak en route to winning the AFC South. They greatly benefitted from being the healthiest team in the NFL, while also playing in the weakest AFC divison. Hard to see them falling out of favor with the potential that all 3 of their divison rivals will be led by rookie QBs at some point in 2023. My only reservation is that they stayed so healthy last year and still only got to 9 wins. They likely won’t be as lucky when it comes to avoiding the injury bug for a second straight season. With some books listing this number at 10.5, I’d easily go under – Erickson
Tennessee Titans — Split (7.5 Wins)
After a 7-3 start in 2022, the Titans fell apart, losing their last seven regular-season games. Tennessee doesn’t have much firepower in the passing game, and its offensive line was a disaster. The Titans’ pass defense was a sieve, giving up a league-high 4,671 yards through the air. Head coach Mike Vrabel has overachieved during much of his tenure with the team, but he has too many infrastructure problems to get the Titans to eight wins – Fitz
AFC West Team Win Totals
| TEAM / DIVISION | Over / Under | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Denver Broncos | 8.5 | Over | Over | Under | Under | Split |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
Denver Broncos — Split (8.5 Wins)
The Broncos woefully underperformed last year. Expecting a bounceback with Sean Payton isn’t really a stretch. The offense will be fine if Russell Wilson can resemble a shade of his former self. Add in that this team sported a defense ranked tenth in total defensive DVOA last year (per Football Outsiders), and they should bank over 8.5 wins. – Dbro
Kansas City Chiefs — Over 11.5 Wins
They’ve won 12 or more games in each of the last five seasons – Erickson
Las Vegas Raiders — Under 7.5 Wins
The Raiders went 6-11 last year and haven’t done enough to repair a defense that ranked 31st in DVOA in 2022. Jimmy Garoppolo replaces Derek Carr at quarterback — a lateral move at best. Morale was reportedly low under head coach Josh McDaniels late in the season, and even if McDaniels was able to quell a mutiny, it wouldn’t take much to put him on the hot seat – Fitz
Los Angeles Chargers — Over 9.5 Wins
I pushed with the Chargers 10 wins in 2022, so I am going back to the well here with the over at 9.5 wins. It’s essentially a bet on quarterback Justin Herbert bouncing back after his play was negatively impacted by injuries a season ago – Erickson
NFC East Team Win Totals
| TEAM / DIVISION | Over / Under | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| New York Giants | 8.5 | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| Washington Commanders | 6.5 | Under | Under | Over | Under | Under |
Dallas Cowboys — Over 9.5 Wins
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off back-to-back 12-win seasons. With that consideration and a still-loaded roster, this win total line is a slap in the face. Adding Brandin Cooks and a full-time role for Tony Pollard should help the offensive efficiency. At their basement, this team should be locked into double-digit wins. – Dbro
New York Giants — Over 8.5 Wins
Big Problems in Big Blue. The Giants are playing seven of their first 10 games on the road this season. Last year, they boasted the NFL’s easiest schedule preseason.With the Giants’ schedule dramatically more difficult than last season, we could see them fail to live up to the expectations that they set after making the postseason in 2022. They have the third-most difficult SOS for fantasy QBs, which could make life difficult for Daniel Jones. Brian Daboll winning coach of the year in 2022 also foreshadowns a potential step back in terms of wins, considering of the last 9 winners, just two exceeded their win total from previous season. They averaged a 57% win percentage after averaging a 77% the year the coach won the award – Erickson
Philadelphia Eagles — Over 10.5 Wins
This seems like an awfully low bar for a team awash in talent on both sides of the ball. The Eagles coasted to a 14-3 record last season and nearly won the Super Bowl. They have the fiercest pass rush in the league, arguably the NFL’s best offensive line, and an exciting collection of skill-position talent highlighted by dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts. This is the easiest over on the board – Fitz
Washington Commanders — Under 6.5 Wins
The Washington Commanders are relying on a combination of quarterbacks Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett to bring them back to relevance in the NFC East. However, that will be easier said than done. They have the 27th-ranked schedule based on their opponent’s forecasted win totals – by far the toughest in their division that boasts two of the NFC’s top quarterbacks. The team’s draft was also horrible in my opinion, which won’t help them win games. Taking the under at 7.5 (-150) on BetMGM seems like a lock. Rivera has only won more than 7 games once (2022, 8) in three years as the Commanders’ head coach – Erickson
NFC North Team Win Totals
| TEAM / DIVISION | Over / Under | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Chicago Bears | 7.5 | Over | Over | Under | Over | Over |
| Detroit Lions | 9.5 | Over | Over | Under | Over | Over |
| Green Bay Packers | 7.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 | Under | Under | Under | Over | Under |
Chicago Bears — Over 7.5 Wins
The Bears are a team on the rise, but let’s be honest: There’s nowhere to go but up from the ashes of a 3-14 season in 2022. Justin Fields is an exciting young QB, though he has much to prove as an NFL passer. The defense has been fortified with a fresh infusion of talent, but it would be naive to expect a quantum leap from a unit that ranked dead last in defensive DVOA a year ago. Chicago needs a year to consolidate its young talent before sniffing a .500 season – Fitz
Detroit Lions Over 9.5 Wins
Detroit improved every facet of a roster that logged nine wins last year. This win total line should be set a game higher than it is. Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs should be upgraded versions of former Lions T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift. The defense should make sizable improvements. All in all, this roster can seize 10-12 wins if everything gels. – Dbro
Green Bay Packers Under 7.5 Wins
The Packers’ forecasted win total rests on the shoulders of first-time starting quarterback Jordan Love. If Love delivers, I could see Green Bay drastically going over the 7.5 number. But that’s a massive “if.†Also, the other factors at play are that the defense is average to mediocre at best, and the team managed just 8 wins a season ago with Aaron Rodgers playing at an average level. Case in point, even if Love is solid in his first year starting (again a big “ifâ€) outstanding circumstances could keep this team from winning eight games for the first time in Mike LeFleur’s head coaching tenure. Not to mention, last season the Packers were one of the healthiest teams in the NFL but went just 8-9. Positive injury luck tends to regress year over year, which doesn’t foreshadow injury kindness to the Cheeseheads – Erickson
Minnesota Vikings Under 8.5 Wins
The Vikings were one of the worst “best†team last season, finishing with a fraudulent 13-4 record despite a negative point differential. Their impending regression is already baked into their U/O wins total set at 8.5, but I am still backing the under. They have no means of a pass rush, which was even considering the team’s recent trade of Za’Darius Smith, Minnesota’s No. 1 pressure generator in 2022. Expecting Kirk Cousins to put the team on his back and will this team to 8-plus wins is a recipe for a disaster. He’s never won more than 8 games in back-to-back seasons at any point during his NFL career – Erickson
NFC South Team Win Totals
| TEAM / DIVISION | Over / Under | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8.5 | Under | Over | Under | Over | Split |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 | Over | Under | Over | Under | Split |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 | Over | Over | Under | Under | Split |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
Atlanta Falcons — Split (8.5 Wins)
RB Bijan Robinson and S Jessie Bates were exciting offseason additions, but it’s hard to see the Falcons finishing above .500 with a Desmond Ridder/Taylor Heinicke tandem at quarterback and a defense that ranked 30th in DVOA last season. A soft division helps, but Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offense won’t produce enough points to give the Falcons a winning record – Fitz
Carolina Panthers — Split (7.5 Wins)
The Panthers mustered their way to 7 wins a season ago, with arguably the league’s worst quarterback play. And overall, Carolina is in a decent spot from a roster construction standpoint. With Bryce Young boosting the offense to just an average level, they should be able to hit eight wins with the league’s third-most favorable schedule. Before Frank Reich’s firing in 2022, he averaged 9.25 wins per season as head coach of the Colts, going over 7.5 wins thrice – Erickson
New Orleans Saints — Split (9.5 Wins)
The Saints are a complete team playing in arguably the softest division in the NFL. If Derek Carr can be an upgrade over Andy Dalton and the defense continues to smother opponents, New Orleans should coast over this win total and take the NFC South crown (+115 to win the division per DraftKings Sportsbook). – Dbro
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Under 6.5 Wins
Baker Mayfield has won more than six games one time during his five-year NFL career (2020, 11). Since then, he has amassed a 10-24 record (29%) – Erickson
NFC West Team Win Totals
| TEAM / DIVISION | Over / Under | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| Los Angeles Rams | 6.5 | Over | Under | Over | Over | Over |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
Arizona Cardinals — Under 5.5 Wins
The Cardinals roster is a dumpster fire. The previous regime swung and missed on free-agent signings, and draft picks religiously, leaving the new hires this year to pick up the pieces. Arizona could be without Kyler Murray for much of the season, and they still could move DeAndre Hopkins in a trade. The under should be an easy bet here. – Dbro
Los Angeles Rams Over 6.5 Wins
The Rams have been giving away draft picks and patching holes with veterans for years — they haven’t had a first-round draft pick since 2016 — and the bills are starting to come due. But while the 2023 edition of the Rams might not be significantly better than the 2022 outfit that finished 5-12, Sean McVay has averaged 10 regular-season wins in his six years as the team’s head coach and should be able to coax 7-8 wins out of this group as long as veteran QB Matthew Stafford is able to play something close to a full season – Fitz
San Francisco 49ers — Over 10.5 Wins
Kyle Shanahan is 16-30 without Jimmy Garoppolo since 2017. The record rested at 9-29 until Brock Purdy’s 7-game winning streak – while posting an unsustainable 7.6% TD rate – at the tail end of the 2022 season. It’s a lot to ask for a team to win 10.5-plus games for a second straight season with major question marks at the quarterback position. They haven’t won more than ten games in back-to-back seasons in the Shanahan/John Lynch era. And better yet, you can get this number at under 11.5 wins at -140 – Erickson
Seattle Seahawks Over 8.5 Wins
The first offseason NFL wager I placed was on the Seattle Seahawks to win the NFC West. Their division is very weak between the Rams/Cardinals and the 49ers have major question marks at quarterback. There’s an argument that Seattle boasts one of the most complete teams in the NFC, which is a much softer conference than the AFC. Not to mention, they won nine games last season in Geno Smith’s first season as the starter – Erickson
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