NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Preview & Prediction: Ravens vs. Jaguars (Week 15)
Our run of high-quality Sunday Night Football matchups continues, as the Baltimore Ravens will travel south for a battle with the AFC South leading Jacksonville Jaguars. The Ravens can get one step closer to a first-round bye and home-field advantage, while the Jags will be seeking a bounce back after falling on the road to the Cleveland Browns after a week of uncertainty surrounding Trevor Lawrence.
Should we back the Ravens to keep rolling as three-point road favorites? Or are the home underdogs the play? Let’s breakdown this Sunday night showdown.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 42
How good are the Ravens?
Maybe it’s silly to question the merit of the current No. 1 seed in the AFC. But while Baltimore’s victory the Los Angeles Rams this past week was resilient, it wasn’t all that impressive, especially for a Ravens defense that was viewed as the best in the league to this point.
Matthew Stafford and company carved up the Ravens secondary for 282 yards, while the Rams totaled 410 yards in the loss, by far the most Baltimore had allowed this season.
My biggest takeaway was that Baltimore struggled mightily to cover Los Angeles’ receiving duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The Ravens haven’t faced a ton of dynamic passing offenses this year, and the Jaguars aerial attack could present some problems for a Ravens secondary that I’m a bit skeptical on.
The problem is Jacksonville’s passing game isn’t at full strength. Trevor Lawrence could still be impacted by his ankle injury suffered two weeks ago, and the Jags are without receiver Christian Kirk - one of their most essential offensive players. That’ll put the emphasis on fellow wideout Calvin Ridley, who has wavered between erratic and brilliant this season, as well as tight end Evan Engram. Baltimore’s been rather stingy against tight ends given their versatility at linebacker and at safety, which could make matters even tougher for the Jaguars passing attack.
Offensively, the sum is more than Baltimore’s parts. Lamar Jackson is having a tremendous first season under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken despite an unheralded receiving group that’s now without star tight end Mark Andrews. But after a pass-heavy script from the Ravens last week, they could go back to their ground attack against a Jaguars defense that ranks just 19th in run defense EPA.
Jaguars seeking a statement win
The Jaguars have generally met expectations this season. They’re 8-5, but still far from out of the woods in an AFC South race that’s been closer than expected. However, the Jaguars haven’t taken the leap that some expected into the AFC’s elite group of teams.
Unlike the Ravens, who have made more out of less, the Jaguars haven’t quite gotten the most out of their talent. Jacksonville ranks 18th in offensive EPA, mainly because of a running game that ranks second-to-last in rushing EPA. Jacksonville struggles to get a consistent running game going with Travis Etienne, and they likely won’t get much better against a sturdy Ravens defense that ranks 14th in EPA run defense.
Like most weeks, the game will ultimately fall on Lawrence’s arm against the top-ranked pass defense that’s recorded the most sacks in the league.
Defensively, the Jaguars have a league-average unit that’s modest in most categories. But one thing Jacksonville could do to disrupt Jackson is blitz more often, as the Jaguars rank 12th in blitz rate this season. Jackson has been far less efficient throwing the ball against the blitz, and this could be the equalizer for a Jaguars defense that might struggle to keep up otherwise.
Prediction & Best Bet
This isn’t a game I love by any means, and the line feels right at Baltimore -3. Ultimately, I don’t trust Jacksonville’s short-handed passing game to replicate what Los Angeles did a week prior, and I have questions about whether this Jacksonville defense has enough to contain Jackson.
If I had to bet the side, I would lay it with Baltimore. But my stronger lean is toward the under in a game that could have some rain and winds gusting up to 30 miles per hour at game time.
The pick: Lean under 41
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