NFL Sunday Night Football Preview & Prediction: Bills vs. Ravens
We should have another banger on deck for Sunday Night Football, as the undefeated Buffalo Bills travel to Baltimore for a crucial AFC clash with a Baltimore Ravens team that could easily be undefeated as well.
Are we backing Josh Allen and the Bills as short road underdogs? Or are we running with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens looking to secure their second straight win in primetime? Here’s a breakdown of this Sunday night showdown.
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Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5), O/U: 46.5
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Undefeated Bills Face Stiffest Test Yet
It might come as a surprise to some to see a plus-number next to Buffalo here. The Bills are rolling and coming off dominant wins against Miami and Jacksonville. But I’m not exactly convinced that Buffalo is the world-beater the public thinks they are after a 3-0 start.
Sure, the Bills are 3-0 and Josh Allen has looked incredible despite not having many proven weapons around him. The defense has made due despite a slew of injuries up the middle. But Buffalo also hasn’t been tested much this season other than during the first half of the season opener against Arizona. Buffalo’s three opponents are 2-7 to begin the year. The best team they’ve beaten was a Dolphins squad that was flawed even before Tua Tagovailoa exited the game late with a concussion.
The Bills lead the league in expected points added EPA (EPA) offensively and are fourth in yards per play. But that’s come against the Cardinals (18th in EPA defensively), the Dolphins (14th) and the Jaguars (30th). Now, I’ll mention that Baltimore’s defense ranks 25th in that category, and the secondary has struggled to begin the year. But Baltimore’s biggest issues defensively have only crept up when they’ve sat back after jumping out to big leads. It cost them a game against the Raiders, completely inexplicable, and resulted in a final score against the Cowboys that looks much closer than the actual game was.
I do think the Ravens are a tough schematic matchup for the Bills, who tore apart a Jaguars defense that refused to get out of man coverage despite a rash of injuries to its secondary. Allen has historically torn up man coverage while struggling much more vs. zone.
I’m trusting Baltimore’s coaching staff and secondary to confuse Allen and force mistakes primarily out of zone coverage. And while Buffalo has prioritized the ground game more often this season, that plays into what’s been Baltimore’s strength defensively, as the Ravens rank third in EPA run defense.
Ravens Built to Exploit Buffalo’s Defensive Weakness
While Buffalo’s defense has been spectacular against the pass, the Bills have shown some vulnerability against the run, ranking 28th in EPA. That’s not surprising considering they lost linebacker Matt Milano for the year and have been without their next best linebacker, Terrel Bernard, who was ruled out on Friday for this contest. This only accentuates Buffalo’s vulnerability up the middle, exactly where the Ravens can capitalize with Derrick Henry. The Ravens are the best team in the league per EPA when it comes to running the football and are averaging 5.9 yards per attempt.
The Ravens also have the weapons in the passing game to exploit Buffalo’s coverage over the middle of the field. Zay Flowers and tight ends Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews could be in line for big days given Buffalo’s untested secondary and vulnerable linebacking group. Expect Lamar Jackson to funnel passes between the hash marks while doing his usual magic with his legs.
Best Bet & Prediction
It’s fair to wonder what this line would’ve been had the Ravens not lost to Kansas City by a toenail or not blown their lead against the Raiders. The Ravens return home in primetime off a big victory facing a team that’s riding high but on a short week. Baltimore is the exact team that can give Buffalo problems if they scheme things up how I expect them to. That’s why I’m rolling with the Ravens.