NFL Sunday Night Football Preview & Prediction: Cowboys vs. Steelers
Two of the NFL’s marquee franchises take the primetime stage Sunday night, as the Pittsburgh Steelers do battle with the Dallas Cowboys in the Steel City.
Pittsburgh is coming off its first loss of the season on the road to Indianapolis after an unexpected 3-0 start. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are looking to keep the momentum going off a long week after defeating the Giants on Thursday night.
Which of these premier NFL franchises are we backing in this matchup? Here’s a full breakdown.
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5), O/U: 44
Dallas Defense Missing Crucial Pieces
The Dallas defense has fallen off through the first month of the season. The Cowboys rank 23rd in EPA, 19th in pass defense EPA and 26th in run defense EPA. The one thing Dallas’ defense still has done well is rushing the passer, generating pressure on 30.5% of opposing dropbacks.
But the Cowboys defense will certainly be weaker Sunday night, as both Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence will miss the game after sustaining injuries in their win over the Giants. Losing two stars is massive for just about any team, but it’s especially damaging for a Cowboys defense that doesn’t have much depth, especially in the front seven.
I’m not overly impressed by the Pittsburgh offense led by Justin Fields. The unit ranks just 19th in EPA, indicating that it’s still one of the more average units. But Pittsburgh’s identity is to run the ball and win with defense. And while the Steelers offense isn’t overly efficient on the ground, it should find success against a Cowboys front that’s struggled to stop the run and will be without its top two players.
Cowboys Offense Could Face Uphill Climb
On the flip side, I’d expect Dallas to face a ton of obvious passing situations against a Pittsburgh defense that won’t be afraid to pin its ears back and pressure Dak Prescott, who will be without his No. 2 receiver Brandin Cooks. The Cowboys also have issues along the offensive line, which is bad news against T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward. Plus, Dallas cannot run the ball and things won’t get better against a Pittsburgh front that’s second in run defense EPA. The gameplan for Tomlin’s crew should be to let anyone but CeeDee Lamb beat them. I’d expect plenty of bracket coverage to prevent Lamb from getting loose, forcing Prescott to seek out less exciting ancillary weapons like Jake Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert.
Best Bet & Prediction
Historically, this has been a good spot to back Mike Tomlin led teams. Since 2007, Pittsburgh is 56-42-1 against the spread after a loss. He’s also 42-32 in non-conference games during that span, and 60-57-2 as a home favorite. And against opponents who hold a rest advantage (Dallas last played on Thursday night), Tomlin is 29-25-3 ATS. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are just 7-10 ATS as a road underdog under Mike McCarthy, although Dallas is 11-4 ATS with a rest advantage.
But considering the losses to the Dallas defense and the situational spot, I like Pittsburgh to take care of business.
The pick: Pittsburgh -2.5
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