NFL Sunday Night Football Preview & Prediction: Jets vs. Steelers
Fascinating falls short of describing Sunday’s Week 7 nightcap between the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers. Let’s start with the traveling Jets, who, in the span of two weeks, fired head coach Robert Saleh, lost to the Buffalo Bills inexplicably in primetime, and traded for wide receiver Davante Adams in a true last-ditch effort to save a fledgling season.
The Steelers have been somewhat more stable and have gotten off to a 4-2 start with Justin Fields under center. But now a self-induced quarterback controversy has emerged as Russell Wilson has returned to health after missing the first six weeks with a calf injury. The Steelers don’t have much reason to make a change now. Fields hasn’t been great, but he’s been good enough to get the Steelers atop the division.
For what it’s worth, we don’t officially know who’ll be under center yet. The Steelers haven’t made a formal announcement, although George Pickens did leak to the media that Wilson would be making his first start this weekend.
All of these changes make for a muddled, yet pivotal, Sunday night clash.
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NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Preview: Jets vs. Steelers
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Jets (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers | O/U 38.5 (-105/-115)
Can the Jets Get It Together With Adams?
You could argue the 2-4 Jets should be at least 4-2. The Jets blew an ugly, rainy game to the Denver Broncos at home in Week 4 and still had a chance to steal it with a field goal in the final seconds. They also were the slightly better team last Monday night against the Bills, but awful officiating combined with even worse red zone execution cost them. You could even argue the Jets should’ve beat the Vikings in London a couple of weeks ago, if only Aaron Rodgers hadn’t thrown three interceptions, including a pick-six.
All in all, maybe the Jets record is the truest indication. The offense is still below average, but better than in years past. Meanwhile, New York’s defense is still pretty strong, just not as good as last year.
The Jets have looked particularly bad against the run, although the analytics indicate the run defense hasn’t been as bad as the eye test would suggest. New York ranks 10th in expected points allowed (EPA) run defense, which is important against a Steelers offense ranked second in the league in rushing attempts while ranking just 24th in EPA rushing. With Pittsburgh missing two key offensive line starters, a Jets defensive line headlined by Quinnen Williams on the inside could be able to shut down the Steelers’ ground game, forcing Wilson or Fields into third-and-long situations.
But what anyone cares about when it comes to the Jets is how Rodgers and Adams will look in their first game together since the tandem was in Green Bay several years ago. Assuming Adams is still close to his prime, his presence elevates a Jets passing game that was a bit too reliant on funneling targets to Garrett Wilson while veterans Mike Williams and Allen Lazard cleaned up the scraps. Adams’ arrival should force opponents to play single coverage across the board, as both Adams and Wilson are dangerous threats with different skill sets.
But as far as this week, it’s hard to say how much of an impact Adams will have against a Steelers pass defense ranked ninth in adjusted net yards per pass attempt. While Adams may not have a huge day in his Jets debut, I could see weapons like Wilson and Lazard taking advantage of more favorable matchups against a Steelers secondary that isn’t overly deep.
Steelers Could Be Making Bold Move Under Center
The Pittsburgh passing game hasn’t been prolific under Justin Fields, but it’s been steady. The Steelers rank 17th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt and are 10th in EPA. While Pittsburgh’s passing game doesn’t boast many weapons that strike fear, aside from big play threat George Pickens, the Jets could be playing shorthanded on the back end. Nickel cornerback Michael Carter has already been ruled out, while No. 2 CB D.J. Reed is questionable with a groin injury and failed to log a practice all week.
I’d assume New York will plan on having Sauce Gardner shadow Pickens throughout the evening, which will challenge Pittsburgh’s awful depth players Calvin Austin and Van Jefferson to make plays.
Frankly, Pittsburgh’s offensive upside takes a hit if it’s Wilson under center. Fields has his flaws, but he poses a threat with his mobility, and I just can’t see Wilson extending plays with his legs at this stage in his career. A more stationary target also helps a Jets defense that’s struggled to contain quarterbacks within the pocket.
Best Bet & Prediction
The Jets rarely do what you need them to do. You pick them, they blow it. You fade them, they look like a title contender. That said, I am riding with Gang Green in a true season-defining game.
New York is simply the more talented team, and their weaknesses won’t be as easy to exploit for Pittsburgh. It wouldn’t stun me in the least if T.J. Watt just wrecked the game on his own against Rodgers. But keep in mind Pittsburgh has just a 21.3% pressure rate, with Watt and Cameron Heyward accounting for over half of the team’s sacks.
It makes me sick, but give me the Jets.
Pick: Jets -1.5 (-115)