NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Bears vs. 49ers
The 49ers and Bears are locked into the playoffs. However, the NFC’s seeding is up in the air, giving both teams ample motivation to play their best tonight. The 49ers will likely lean on their workhorse running back, reflected in two of the legs in the following same-game parlay. However, he might not be leaned on as a runner, which would positively correlate with another leg of the same-game parlay. Finally, one of Chicago’s pass-catching weapons should shine, leading to his receiving over making the parlay. Of course, don’t forget to boost the odds on your NFL Sunday Night Football same-game parlay with our NFL Same Game Parlay Builder.
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NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Bears vs. 49ers
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
- Leg 1: Brock Purdy Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-113)
- Leg 2: Christian McCaffrey Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Leg 3: Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD Scorer (-275)
- Leg 4: Luther Burden III Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Brock Purdy opened the year with 277 passing yards in Week 1, and he even had 309 while playing through turf toe in Week 4. After his shaky Week 4 showing, Purdy was kept on ice until Week 11, and he demonstrated rust in Week 11 through Week 13. Purdy got right during San Francisco’s Week 14 bye, though.
In two subsequent contests, he’s passed for 295 and 295 yards. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, San Francisco had a +5.6% pass rate over expectations (PROE) and a +4.8% PROE in Week 15 and Week 16, respectively. To put those numbers in perspective, the Broncos have the fifth-highest PROE this year at +5.6%. Kyle Shannahan has let Purdy sling it, and he’s rewarded them lately.
Purdy has a mid-pack matchup tonight. The Bears have allowed the 16th-most passing yards per game (228.9) and the 20th-most adjusted net yards per pass attempt (5.87 ANY/A) this season. Purdy is clicking on all cylinders, and while George Kittle is questionable, he's probably on the doubtful side of that designation, Ricky Pearsall is also questionable, and he appears on the probable side of that designation after logging limited practice sessions all week. FantasyPros projects Purdy to comfortably clear 253.5 passing yards by logging 272.3.
Christian McCaffrey should be busy tonight. However, he might have mixed results on the ground if Kittle can’t suit up. CMC has recorded 53.4 rushing yards per game, 3.10 yards per carry and a 1.2% explosive run rate in five games without Kittle this year and logged 77.2 rushing yards per game, 3.98 yards per carry, and a 3.6% explosive run rate in 10 starts with Kittle this season.
Shanahan will likely get more out of McCaffrey by using him through the air. CMC has the following receiving stats this season.
- 76.3% route participation rate
- 21.4% target share
- 0.26 targets per route run (TPRR)
- 15.6% first-read rate
- 7.3 targets per game
- 6.1 receptions per game
- 56.6 receiving yards per game
- 2.00 yards per route run (Y/RR)
McCaffrey has exceeded 43.5 receiving yards in 10-of-15 games this season, with a median of 57. FantasyPros projects him to have 47.9 receiving yards tonight.
McCaffrey also has a nose for the end zone. CMC has a five-game touchdown streak entering tonight, and he’s scored a touchdown in 11-of-15 games this season. He should reach paydirt again tonight for the high-scoring 49ers.
Luther Burden III was out last week but doesn’t have an injury designation tonight. The rookie wideout has stepped up since early November. In six games since Week 10, Burden has the following receiving numbers.
- 53.5% route participation rate
- 7.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 14.3% air yards share
- 15.8% target share
- 0.26 TPRR
- 22.3% first-read share
- 5.3 targets per game
- 3.8 receptions per game
- 51.3 receiving yards per game
- 2.55 Y/RR
- 45.5% slot rate
He’s eclipsed 47.5 receiving yards in back-to-back games and three of his past six.
Burden also has eye-catching data against San Francisco’s coverage tendencies. The 49ers are 10th in zone coverage rate (77.1%) and 13th in single-high coverage rate (52.7%) since Week 12. Meanwhile, Burden has 0.27 TPRR and 2.92 Y/RR on 139 routes against zone and 0.26 TPRR and 3.48 Y/RR against single-high coverage this season. Burden isn’t a slouch against two-high coverage, either. He’s recorded 0.26 TPRR and 1.77 Y/RR on 90 routes against two-high coverage.
Burden’s slot rate should serve him well, too. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the 49ers have allowed the 11th-fewest yards per target (7.97) to wide receivers aligned wide and coughed up the third-most yards per target (8.99) to wide receivers aligned in the slot. Burden should give San Francisco’s injury-riddled defense trouble and eclipse 47.5 receiving yards tonight.
Parlay Odds: +525
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.