NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Bills vs. 49ers (Week 13)
The Bills are hosting the 49ers on Sunday Night Football in a game that looked more alluring before the injury bug ravaged San Francisco’s lineup. However, there’s still ample star power in the game, and two of the game’s biggest stars have a few tasty props. Another critical skill-position player has a chalky correlated leg to round out the following five-leg parlay with juicy odds.
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Sunday Night Football’s Best Same Game Parlay Bets: Bills vs. 49ers
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills
- Leg 1: Josh Allen 200+ Passing Yards (-210)
- Leg 2: Josh Allen 25+ Rushing Yards (-235)
- Leg 3: Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)
- Leg 4: Christian McCaffrey 40+ Receiving Yards (+130)
- Leg 5: Khalil Shakir 40+ Receiving Yards (-260)
Buffalo, New York, has been blasted with snow. However, Kevin Roth’s forecast for the game isn’t terrifying for the passing outlook for this contest. Some snow and wind aren’t optimal for passing, but the conditions aren’t impossible to pass in.
As a result, Josh Allen can clear the low bar of 200 passing yards. According to RotoViz’s pace app, since Week 8, the Bills have had a 60% situation-neutral pass rate, tied for the third-highest mark. In Buffalo’s previous six games, Allen has passed for 215, 323, 283, 235, 280 and 262 yards, all comfortably above 200. Even in suboptimal passing conditions, 200 passing yards is easily within his crosshairs.
Allen’s also cranked up his rushing production lately. In Buffalo’s final two games before their Week 12 bye, he had 50 and 55 rushing yards. Those were his third-highest and highest rushing totals this season. Allen has had at least 25 rushing yards six times in 11 games despite hurting his hand on a touchdown run against the Cardinals in Week 1. Allen’s hand might have impacted his rushing at times this year, resulting in some uncharacteristic low outputs on the ground. Still, according to Pro Football Reference, Allen has averaged 28.7 receiving yards per game, with a median of 25. FantasyPros projects Allen to have 239.7 passing yards and 36.4 rushing yards against the 49ers.
Khalil Shakir should have a significant hand in Allen reaching at least 200 passing yards tonight. Shakir has averaged 5.6 receptions and 59.9 receiving yards per game this year, tallying at least 40 in nine of 10 games. Buffalo’s slot receiver has had at least 50 receiving yards in five straight games.
Furthermore, according to the data suite at Fantasy Points, since Week 8, Shakir has had a 16.2% air-yard share, 24.0% target share, 0.31 targets per route run and a 32.1% first-read share. Shakir had just a 3.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in those games, making him an ideal pass-catching option for Allen if the windy conditions limit his effectiveness in chucking the pigskin deep. FantasyPros projects Shakir to have 57.2 receiving yards against the 49ers.
San Francisco is a 6.0-point underdog and might be in a negative game script against the favored hosts. Christian McCaffrey will be busy in San Francisco’s passing attack, which might need to play catch-up against the Bills. In three healthy contests this year, CMC has had a 17.2% target share, 13 receptions (4.3 per game) and 132 receiving yards (49.7 per game).
McCaffrey should be even busier than his season averages in a drool-inducing matchup. According to Pro Football Reference, the Bills are tied for the most receptions allowed per game (6.27) and have coughed up the most receiving yards per game (50.7) to running backs this season. CMC is tailor-made to take advantage of this matchup.
Parlay Odds: +575
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.