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NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Buccaneers vs. Bears

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The Bears will be at a rest disadvantage against the Buccaneers after playing on Monday Night Football in Week 8, but Chicago had a statement win, convincingly beating the Seahawks 34-17 in Seattle. Even at a rest disadvantage, the Bears are 6-point home favorites against the visiting Buccaneers. The game’s over/under total is 47.5 points, putting it on the verge of a shootout. The following four-leg NFL Sunday Night Football same game parlay (SGP) features three full-game overs and one first-half over. Three legs are directly positively correlated, and the other would correlate positively in a certain game script, but it should be fine even if that script doesn’t come to fruition.

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    NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Buccaneers vs. Bears

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

      Caleb Williams is having a sensational season. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, among 33 quarterbacks with at least 125 dropbacks this year, Williams has recorded the following numbers (rankings in parentheses):

      • 70.9% completion percentage (2nd)
      • 85.8% adjusted completion percentage (1st)
      • 9.5% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) (2nd)
      • 8.02 yards per pass attempt (5th)
      • 7.31 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) (10th)
      • 253.4 passing yards per game (11th)

      Williams’ passing numbers are stellar, but they’re even better if you remove the rainy Week 2 game against the Vikings in Chicago. He surges to 282.3 passing yards per game, 8.55 yards per pass attempt and 8.29 ANY/A in his other four contests.

      The third-year pro has cleared 245.5 passing yards in four of his five starts - every game except the Vikings contest. His median output this year is 247 passing yards, which came last week against Seattle’s stingy defense.

      The Bears are favored, but they’ll likely need to throw to take the lead. The Buccaneers have faced the fourth-highest pass rate over expected (3.1% PROE) this season - 5.7% PROE if you eliminate last week’s monsoon. Thus, Williams should be busy and clear 245.5 passing yards on Sunday Night Football.

      Luther Burden III should help Williams clear his passing line, especially if he torches the Buccaneers early. Burden’s production this season has been heavily front-loaded. In eight games, Burden has 42 receptions and 547 receiving yards. He has 26 receptions and 400 receiving yards in the first half. Burden has tallied 61.9% of his receptions and 73.1% of his receiving yards in the first half.

      Burden has averaged 50 first-half receiving yards per game, exceeding 34.5 yards in six out of eight games, including four of Williams’ five starts. The outlier among Williams’ starts was, again, against the Vikings. Burden should once again be heavily involved early and surpass 34.5 receiving yards in the first half.

        Colston Loveland had a nightmarish start to the year with zero receptions in Week 1 and one three-yard catch in Week 2. He was up and down in three games without Williams, tallying 31, 57 and 19 receiving yards. The sophomore tight end has played well since Williams returned, with 65, 69 and 65 receiving yards.

        Loveland has logged the following stats in his last three games:

        • 87.6% snap share
        • 74.1% route participation rate
        • 26.2% target share
        • 0.31 TPRR
        • 27.0% first-read rate
        • 25.1% air yard share
        • 6.7 receptions per game
        • 66.3 receiving yards per game
        • 2.31 YPRR

        Furthermore, Loveland should be an answer against Tampa Bay’s blitz-heavy tendencies. The Buccaneers rank fifth in blitz rate (44.7% versus 32.4% league average) since Week 5. Meanwhile, in Williams’ five starts, Loveland has posted 0.33 TPRR and 2.23 YPRR on 39 routes against the blitz, and FantasyPros projects him for 51.2 receiving yards against the Buccaneers.

        The Buccaneers are underdogs, but Bucky Irving can clear 50+ rushing yards, even if they end up in a negative game script. If Tampa Bay surprisingly gets a positive game script, that would be optimal for Irving’s rushing outlook and would force the Bears to pass more, too.

        The Buccaneers rank 31st in PROE (-7.1%) this year, and they have a surreal -35.3% PROE in two games since Baker Mayfield returned from his thumb injury. Clearly, Tampa Bay wants to lean on the running game.

        Irving is comfortably the team’s lead running back. The third-year pro has handled 66.8% of Tampa Bay’s backfield’s rush attempts. Among 32 running backs with at least 65 rush attempts this year, Irving has the following marks (rankings in parentheses):

        • 18.4 rush attempts per game (7th)
        • 91.0 rushing yards per game (5th)
        • 4.95 yards per carry (7th)
        • 2.54 yards before contact per attempt (6th)
        • 2.41 yards after contact per attempt (10th)
        • 11.6% explosive run rate (13th)
        • 52.4% success rate (15th)
        • 41.5% stuff rate (8th)
        • 0.22 missed tackles forced per attempt (T-8th)
        • 0.61 rush yards over expectation per attempt (10th)

        Irving has reached 50 rushing yards in five out of eight games, including back-to-back contests and four of his last five.

        The Bears made a massive deal for Jeffery Simmons, giving them a stud in the middle of their defensive line and making Chicago’s numbers against running backs this year hard to dig into.

        Still, Tampa Bay’s offensive line is a mauling unit. So, it’s a strength-versus-strength matchup. FantasyPros projects Irving for 79.3 rushing yards on Sunday Night Football.

        Parlay Odds: +410

        Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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