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NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Chiefs vs. Seahawks

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The Seattle Seahawks host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. The Seahawks lost a nail-biter to the Broncos in Week 6, falling to 3-3, but they’re 3-point favorites against the undefeated Chiefs. While the Seahawks are favored, the first leg of the following four-leg parlay projects an ugly outcome for one of their critical players. The team’s superstar rounds out our four-leg NFL Sunday Night Football same game parlay (SGP) with a highly attainable - and extremely chalky - receiving line. Between those legs are Chiefs yardage props.

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    NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Chiefs vs. Seahawks

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

      Sam Darnold left Week 1’s contest early with an injury after only five snaps, and it’s the only one in which he hasn’t thrown at least one interception. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, among 34 quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks, Darnold is third in interceptions (seven), second in interception rate (4.7%) and first in turnover-worthy-throw rate (7.4%).

      On the other side, the Chiefs can force turnovers. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they’re tied for ninth in interceptions (five) despite already having a bye. Kansas City has precisely one interception in each game. That’s unlikely to change against interception-machine Darnold.

      Kenneth Walker III, last year’s Super Bowl MVP, gets his first crack at the team that drafted him. The Seahawks are a tough nut for running backs to crack, but they can be cracked. Check out these stat lines:

      • Week 1: Rhamondre Stevenson had 95 scrimmage yards
      • Week 4: Omarion Hampton, Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell combined for 152 scrimmage yards
      • Week 5: Christian McCaffrey had 83 scrimmage yards on just 14 touches
      • Week 6: RJ Harvey, J.K. Dobbins and Tyler Badie combined for 108 scrimmage yards

      Walker is going nuts, too. He is second in the NFL in scrimmage yards (760), 25 yards behind Bijan Robinson, who has one extra game. Walker is averaging 152 combined rushing + receiving yards per game this season, so his alt line of 100+ scrimmage yards leaves plenty of wiggle room, and he’ll be fine in any game script since he can amass yards on the ground or through the air. FantasyPros projects Walker for 108.4 scrimmage yards on Sunday Night Football.

        Travis Kelce has sipped from the fountain of youth. He has recorded the following numbers in five games this season:

        • 76.1% snap share
        • 70.7% route participation rate
        • 16.5% target share
        • 0.21 targets per route run (TPRR)
        • 19.1% first-read rate
        • 18.1% air yard share
        • 4.0 receptions per game
        • 59.8 receiving yards per game
        • 2.43 yards per route run (YPRR)

        Kelce has fallen short of 44.5 yards only once, with 15 receiving yards on two receptions against the Raiders in Week 4. Without Rashee Rice, Kelce would normally project well.

        However, the Seahawks are monsters against tight ends. Seattle has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game (25.5) and the third-fewest yards per target (4.5) to tight ends this season. Trey McBride is the only tight end to break 40 receiving yards against them, with 41 yards on 10 targets and eight receptions in Week 2. Even with a strong season, Kelce is unlikely to be the first tight end to exceed 44.5 receiving yards against the Seahawks this season.

        Jaxon Smith-Njigba is barbecuing defenses. His underlying data (32.3% target share and 50.6% air yard share) is otherworldly, and it’s led to an NFL-high 119.5 receiving yards per game and 3.79 YPRR. Smith-Njigba has recorded at least 76 receiving yards in every game, and he failed to reach at least 60 yards only three times last season, two of which were in the playoffs. I added his alt line of only 60+ receiving yards to bump the parlay odds to a tasty +440.

        Parlay Odds: +440

        Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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