NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Colts vs. Vikings (Week 9)
The following four-leg same-game parlay (SGP) is straightforward. The Vikings are home favorites, which should allow them to pound the rock. Conversely, the road underdog Colts will likely need to air it out. So, the upcoming parlay was built with the Vikings leading and the Colts chasing them.
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Sunday Night Football’s Best Same Game Parlay Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
- Leg 1: Aaron Jones Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Leg 2: Joe Flacco Over 237.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Leg 3: Josh Downs Over 5.5 Receptions (-170)
- Leg 4: Josh Downs Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Aaron Jones was highly productive in seven seasons for the Packers. However, he was never used as a bell-cow running back. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Jones’ 14.8 rush attempts per game in 2019 were a career-high mark with the Packers and one of only two instances in which he surpassed 14.0 rush attempts per game.
Kevin O’Connell has leaned on the veteran running back in his first campaign for the Vikings. Jones is averaging a new career-high 14.9 rush attempts per game. Moreover, that mark is depressed by the contest he left early in London. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in Jones’ six healthy contests, he has averaged 16.2 rush attempts per game for 472 yards (78.7 per game), 4.87 yards per carry, 1.80 yards before contact per attempt, 3.06 yards after contact per attempt and a 7.2% explosive run rate. Jones has also been tough to bottle up for zero or negative yards, tallying a 42.3% stuff rate in his six entirely healthy contests.
Jones should have a favorable game script against a Charmin-soft run defense on Sunday night. The Vikings are 5.5-point favorites. O’Connell would be wise to lean on his talented running back in a neutral or favorable game script since the Colts can’t stop the run. Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Colts have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (123.3) to running backs this year. Thus, FantasyPros projects Jones to record 74.2 rushing yards against Indianapolis.
A positive game script for Jones would be ideal for Joe Flacco’s passing outlook. Flacco’s performed admirably in one relief appearance and two starts this year. He lit up the Jaguars for 359 passing yards in Week 5.
Flacco has a matchup against another defense opponents have chosen to lean into the pass against. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Vikings have faced a 56% situation-neutral pass rate this year. In addition, Minnesota has yielded the second-most passing yards per game (284.4) to quarterbacks this season.
Flacco will likely direct many passes to Josh Downs when he takes to the air. In the three contests Flacco played most of Indy’s snaps, Downs had a 26.5% target share, 0.35 targets per route run, a 34.1% first-read percentage, 24 receptions (8.0 per game), 217 receiving yards (72.3 per game) and 2.52 yards per route run. Downs surpassed 5.5 receptions and 62.5 receiving yards in all three of those contests.
The Vikings are unlikely to provide much resistance to Downs. They’ve coughed up the second-most receiving yards per game (204.9) to wide receivers this season. Downs should have his way with Minnesota’s secondary.
Parlay Odds: +465
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.