NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Commanders vs. Falcons (Week 17)
Sunday Night Football is a battle of rookie quarterbacks on playoff-hopeful teams. The game’s spread is only 3.5 points, so both teams should have an opportunity to play how they’d like to if the game goes according to the betting expectations.
With that in mind, one running back might not be all that busy, while one of the rookie quarterbacks should clear the low line for his passing prop and one of his unreliable pass-catching options probably won’t help him. As a result, the following four-leg parlay is boosted by negatively correlated legs.
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Sunday Night Football Best Same Game Parlay Bets: Commanders vs. Falcons
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders
- Leg 1: Michael Penix Jr. Over 200.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Leg 2: Brian Robinson Jr. Under 66.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
- Leg 3: Kyle Pitts Under 2.5 Receptions (-185)
- Leg 4: Kyle Pitts Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Despite the lopsided final score, Michael Penix Jr. was slinging it in his first professional start last week. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Falcons had a 52% situation-neutral pass rate on 27 plays in a neutral game script last week, and the lefty had stellar numbers.
Per the data suite at Fantasy Points, on 29 dropbacks last week, Penix had a 66.7% completion rate, an 80.8% adjusted completion rate, 202 passing yards and a 5.8-yard average depth of throw. Penix has the requisite big arm to sling it deep. Still, it was encouraging he succeeded with a shallower depth of throw last week. FantasyPros projects Penix for 220.7 passing yards this week.
Penix wisely fed Drake London and Darnell Mooney. The rookie signal-caller had his first career interception when he targeted Kyle Pitts. Penix’s only mistake on the interception was wasting a target on Pitts. The underachieving tight end hilariously bobbled Penix’s pass and looked like he was playing hot potato when he tossed it to the defensive back.
The Falcons could consider showcasing Pitts to a potential trade candidate in the offseason if they were out of contention. Instead, Atlanta is in first place in the NFC South, with the Buccaneers nipping at their heels. Thus, it’s intelligent they used Pitts for only a 51.7% route participation rate last week. He had two targets and eight air yards.
Take a look at Pitts’ stats since Week 12:
- 64.1% route participation rate
- 15.9% air yards share
- 11.7% target share
- 0.17 targets per route run
- 14 targets
- 12.3% first-read percentage
- 0 designed targets
- 6 receptions (1.5 per game)
- 49 receiving yards (12.3 per game)
- 0.60 yards per route run
- 3.50 yards per target
- 8.17 yards per reception
Pitts is inefficient and doing nothing to demonstrate he should be more involved in the offense. Therefore, his unders for receptions and receiving yards are enticing negatively correlated legs for Penix’s passing over.
Sticking on the theme of a player who’s not doing himself any favors, Brian Robinson Jr. had two lost fumbles last week. He’s also had only 89 rushing yards on 31 attempts in the previous two weeks.
Robinson doesn’t have a get-right matchup this week, saying nothing of another fumble potentially landing him in the doghouse. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Falcons have allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (82.3) to running backs this season. Furthermore, since Week 13, Atlanta has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game (70.3) at 3.70 yards per carry.
Understandably, teams haven’t beaten their heads against the wall against Atlanta’s stout run defense. Since Week 13, the Falcons have faced only a 37% situation-neutral rush rate. Meanwhile, in two games since Washington’s Week 14 bye, the Commanders have had a 63% situation-neutral pass rate.
While the Commanders might have a favorable game script as the favorite, Robinson is unlikely to have much success on the ground or get force-fed the ball. FantasyPros projects him for 64.5 rushing yards.
Parlay Odds: +600
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.