NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Cowboys vs. 49ers
The 49ers have had their way with the Cowboys recently. San Francisco’s banged up, though. Additionally, Dallas is coming out of their bye. As a result, the game’s spread is slight, and it should be a competitive contest. The following four-leg same game parlay features overs for four of the most critical players in this contest.
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Sunday Night Football’s Best Same Game Parlay Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers SGP
- Leg 1: Jordan Mason 70+ Rushing Yards (-175)
- Leg 2: Dak Prescott Over 244.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Leg 3: CeeDee Lamb 70+ Receiving Yards (-145)
- Leg 4: Jake Ferguson 40+ Receiving Yards (-110)
Despite injuries mounting for the 49ers, they’re 4.0-point favorites against the visiting Cowboys. The game spread should be favorable for Jordan Mason’s rushing outlook, and San Francisco’s offensive tendencies are ideal for him, too.
According to RotoViz’s pace app, the 49ers are tied for the fourth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (52%) since Week 4. Kyle Shanahan might be further incentivized to run the ball without Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and possibly Deebo Samuel.
Mason can be relied on to shoulder the load. According to Pro Football Reference, he’s averaged 95.3 rushing yards per game this season. Additionally, even after suffering a shoulder injury in Week 6, Mason handled 14 of San Francisco’s backfield’s 16 rush attempts in Week 7.
Mason has an excellent matchup this week. The Cowboys have allowed the 10th-most rushing yards per game (108.8) to running backs. Additionally, Shanahan can bully them with heavy personnel. According to Sumer Sports, the 49ers have used two backs, two tight ends or two of each, on over 40% of their plays this year.
Meanwhile, according to the data suite at Fantasy Points, the Cowboys have allowed 6.44 yards per carry on 18 rush attempts in 22 personnel, 4.55 in 12 personnel and 3.63 in 21 personnel. I suspect Shanahan knows Dallas’s inability to stop runs in 22 personnel and will bully their defense. FantasyPros projects Mason to have 83.4 rushing yards against the Cowboys.
While the 49ers will likely lean on their running game, the Cowboys will probably sling it because of their lack of talent at running back. Since Week 4, the Cowboys are tied for the ninth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (57%).
Dak Prescott isn’t matching last season’s brilliance. Nevertheless, he’s averaging 267.0 passing yards per game, with a median of 257.0 this season. Prescott has eclipsed 244.5 passing yards three times in six games this season. FantasyPros projects him to have 252.7 passing yards against the 49ers.
CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson should be on the receiving end of most of Prescott’s pass attempts. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Lamb has a 27.7% air-yard share this season, 21.8% target share, 27.1% first-read percentage, 0.25 targets per route run and 77.8 receiving yards per game.
Ferguson isn’t a slouch, either. The third-year pro has a 14.8% air-yard share, 17.3% target share, 18.6% first-read percentage, 0.22 targets per route run and 48.0 receiving yards per game. Lamb and Ferguson can hit their season averages, enough to cover their legs in the parlay.
Parlay Odds: +525
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.