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NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Cowboys vs. Packers

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The Green Bay Packers are 1.5-point favorites against the visiting Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. The slight spread suggests a competitive contest. However, I’ve buried the lede. The game’s consensus total is 53.0 points. Bettors who love offensive fireworks should be in for a treat. The following four-leg NFL Sunday Night Football same game parlay (SGP) leans into the shootout expectations with two passing overs and two receiving overs.

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    NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Cowboys vs. Packers

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

      The Cowboys essentially got a mini bye after they were upset by the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football in Week 5. Dak Prescott didn’t have his best stuff but cleared 300 passing yards for the second straight game.

      Prescott passed for only 175 yards in Week 1, but he’s rattled off 279, 276, 335 and 316 in four subsequent contests. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, among 37 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this season, Prescott is ninth in completion rate (67.2%), sixth in passing yards per game (276.2), 18th in yards per pass attempt (7.19) and 14th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.04 ANY/A).

      Prescott is the engine of the offense. The Cowboys lead the league in pass rate over expected (9.7% PROE) this season. The Packers haven’t allowed a quarterback to reach 260 passing yards against them this season, but a look under the hood reveals they’ve faced a Charmin-soft run of quarterbacks.

      They knocked Kyler Murray out of Week 1’s contest, and Carson Wentz came in and completed 12-of-19 passes for 133 yards. Green Bay faced Geno Smith in rainy conditions in New Jersey in Week 2 before Michael Penix Jr. carved them up for 256 yards on only 25 pass attempts.

      The Packers have faced backup quarterbacks in the last two weeks - undrafted rookie free agent Jalon Daniels in his first career start and a combination of Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum in Week 5. Prescott will be a reality check, and FantasyPros projects Prescott for 260.7 passing yards on Sunday Night Football.

      CeeDee Lamb is Prescott’s top wideout, with all due respect to George Pickens. Pickens had an eruption in a down game for Lamb last week. Nevertheless, Lamb has rattled off the following numbers this season in five games:

      • 78.5% route participation rate
      • 26.6% target share
      • 0.31 targets per route run (TPRR)
      • 35.9% first-read rate
      • 10.2 targets per game
      • 37.9% air yard share
      • 7.8 receptions per game
      • 106.4 receiving yards per game
      • 3.09 yards per route run (YPRR)

      Lamb had only 44 receiving yards in Week 1 and nine last week, but sandwiched those stinkers around 153, 112 and 189 receiving yards. He should get back on track this week, and FantasyPros projects him for 87.6 receiving yards against the Packers.

        Prescott can sling it, but he’s unlikely to be the top passer in this contest. Jordan Love has a drool-inducing matchup. The Cowboys rank middle of the pack in passing yards allowed per game (231.8), but they’re permitting an eye-popping 8.4 yards per pass attempt.

        Meanwhile, even behind a makeshift offensive line and with a matchup against Brian Flores’ fearsome Vikings defense on his ledger, Love ranks fourth in passing yards per game (281.6), 11th in yards per pass attempt (7.61) and 11th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.28) among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this season.

        In Josh Jacobs’s absence, Matt LaFleur has leaned on his rocket-armed quarterback. The Packers are fourth in PROE (7.7%). As a result, Love has cleared 300 passing yards in three out of five contests. FantasyPros projects Love to light up the Cowboys for 284.5 passing yards.

        Love has a burgeoning duo of speedy wideouts giving the opposition fits, but I’m including Christian Watson’s receiving over instead of Matthew Golden’s. Ambitious gamblers who want to build a lotto ticket can lean into the shootout potential and tack on a Golden receiving over for even larger odds, but I’m not going to get greedy with this particular SGP.

        Among 70 wideouts with at least 100 routes run, Watson is 23rd in target share (20.0%), tied for 18th in targets per route run (0.24), 31st in first-read rate (23.2%), 21st in air yard share (33.3%), 15th in receptions per game (5.2), seventh in receiving yards per game (94.8) and third in yards per route run (3.10).

        Watson has exceeded 75 receiving yards in three out of five games, with a median of 96. Watson is a big play waiting to happen and projected to barbecue the Cowboys for 83.6 receiving yards.

        Parlay Odds: +425

        Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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