NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Cowboys vs. Steelers

The Steelers are 2.5-point favorites against the visiting Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, and Pittsburgh’s two top offensive players have exciting props. Meanwhile, Dallas’s ancillary weapons have intriguing overs. Their props combine to create a tantalizing five-leg parlay with +1800 odds.

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(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers SGP

• Leg 1: Justin Fields Over 46.5 Rushing Yards  (-115)
• Leg 2: George Pickens Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
• Leg 3: Rico Dowdle Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
• Leg 4: Jake Ferguson Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-160)
• Leg 5: KaVontae Turpin Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Justin Fields had 57 rushing yards in Week 1 before a quiet pair of rushing efforts. Fortunately, he bounced back for 55 rushing yards in Week 4. Fields should benefit immensely from the absences of DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons on Dallas’s defense.

The Cowboys have also been soft against the run, including surrendering yardage to mobile quarterbacks. Thankfully, Arthur Smith is willing to lean on Fields’s legs. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Fields has 38 designed runs this year. With Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson ruled out, Fields’s explosiveness as a runner might be needed more than usual. Thus, FantasyPros projects Fields to have 47.5 rushing yards against the Cowboys.

George Pickens should be on the receiving end of many of Fields’s passes when Pittsburgh’s quarterback drops back. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 75 wide receivers with at least 75 routes this season, Pickens is first in air-yard share (54.7%), eighth in target share (26.6%), tied for 16th in targets per route run (0.27), 11th in yards per route run (2.63 Y/RR), tied for fourth in first-read percentage (35.3%) and tied for 16th in first downs per route run (0.111).

He’s parlayed his elite underlying data into 5.0 receptions per game and 71.0 receiving yards per game. Pickens has exceeded 53.5 receiving yards in three of four contests this year, and FantasyPros projects him to have 67.4 against the Cowboys.

Meanwhile, Dak Prescott might be busy as a passer for the Cowboys. They haven’t had much success on the ground, and the Cowboys have a pass-leaning offense. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Dallas’s 57% situation-neutral pass rate is tied for the 11th-highest mark. Conversely, the Steelers have faced a 54% situation-neutral pass rate. CeeDee Lamb is obviously Prescott’s No. 1 weapon, but Jake Ferguson is clearly his No. 2 option.

Since tallying 15 receiving yards in Week 1, Ferguson has rattled off 95 and 49 on six and seven receptions after missing Week 2 with a knee injury. Clearly, the injury hasn’t slowed him. Since Week 3, Ferguson has had a team-high 21.8% target share, 16.5% air-yard share, 0.27 targets per route run and 21.8% first-read percentage. FantasyPros projects Ferguson to have 49.8 receiving yards against the Steelers.

Rico Dowdle and KaVontae Turpin should benefit from Brandin Cooks missing the next few weeks. Cooks was second on the Cowboys in air-yard share (20.2%) and third in target share (12.5%). Dowdle has averaged 18.5 receiving yards per game and amassed 29, 24 and 15 receiving yards after quiet opener. FantasyPros projects him to have 16.4 receiving yards.

Turpin, the former USFL MVP, has been utilized as a part-time gadget player. Still, he’s had a stellar 0.26 targets per route run at an 11.3-yard average depth of target, with an 88.9% slot percentage.

The diminutive slot receiver was blanked in receptions twice this year and had four receiving yards once. However, he also exploded for 51 receiving yards once. The Cowboys might need more from the shifty gadget player, returner and part-time wideout without Cooks’s juice in the passing attack, and the Steelers funnel targets to the slot. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Pittsburgh has faced the ninth-highest slot target percentage (36.3%) this year, which bodes well for Turpin making the most of any opportunities on Sunday night. Finally, FantasyPros projects Turpin to have 19.9 receiving yards.

Parlay Odds: +1800

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.