NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Giants vs. Chiefs (Week 3)
When the schedule makers scheduled the Chiefs at the Giants in Week 3, I don’t think they expected both teams to be 0-2. Kansas City’s back is up against the wall, and it’s reflected in one eye-catching tendency through two weeks that was factored into the forthcoming four-leg same-game parlay (SGP). Moreover, the play-calling tendencies and how teams are attacking the Chiefs and Giants so far this season were considered when making the selections.
Of course, don’t forget to boost the odds on your NFL same-game parlays with our NFL Same Game Parlay Builder.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
NFL Same Game Parlay for Sunday Night Football: Giants vs. Chiefs
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants
- Leg 1: Patrick Mahomes 240+ Passing Yards (+103)
- Leg 2: Patrick Mahomes Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
- Leg 3: Isiah Pacheco Under 41.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
- Leg 4: Malik Nabers 80+ Receiving Yards (-109)
Kansas City’s offense hasn’t gotten back to its high-flying ways and it hasn’t been a fun watch. Nevertheless, the Chiefs remain a pass-heavy team. According to nfelo, the Chiefs have the second-highest pass rate over expectations (7.7% PROE) this season. Cincinnati’s 8.2% PROE was the highest in the NFL in 2024, and Kansas City’s 5.2% PROE was the second-highest mark. So, they’ve kicked it up, despite Travis Kelce blowing up Xavier Worthy and injuring the speedy second-year wideout’s shoulder early in the season opener, saying nothing of Rashee Rice serving his six-game suspension.
According to Pro Football Reference, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 222.5 passing yards per game this season with his underwhelming cast of characters. He may also get Worthy back this week, and Jalen Royals could make his regular-season debut, having practiced fully this week. Per Pro Football Reference, the Giants have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (277.5) and generated the fifth-lowest pressure rate (13.7%) through Week 2. Thus, Mahomes should exceed 239.5 passing yards, and FantasyPros projects him to have 247.8 passing yards on Sunday Night Football.
Mahomes should also gash the Giants on the ground. His rushing ability has never been in question, as he pulls that lever in the playoffs annually. Mahomes hasn’t used his legs often in the regular season in previous seasons, but Kansas City has needed him to put them on his back. Mahomes is averaging an eye-popping 61.5 rushing yards per game this season, with 57 in Week 1 and 66 in Week 2. Conversely, the G-Men have permitted 42.5 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks this season, albeit facing Jayden Daniels in Week 1 and Jalen Hurts in Week 2. Still, Mahomes isn’t a get-right matchup for Big Blue to tighten up their issues with stopping quarterbacks as scramblers.
Kansas City’s pass-heavy tendencies have come at the expense of their running backs. Moreover, the Chiefs are splitting up the backfield opportunities. Isiah Pacheco leads Kansas City’s backfield in snap share at 55%. However, Kareem Hunt has a 39% snap share and Brashard Smith has an 11% snap share.
It gets worse for Pacheco’s rushing outlook. He’s handled only 15 of the backfield’s 29 rush attempts (51.7%). According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Pacheco has only 47 rushing yards, 3.13 yards per carry, 0.73 yards before contact per attempt, 2.40 yards after contact per attempt, one missed tackle forced and zero explosive runs this season. Pacheco hasn’t even reached 30 rushing yards in a game this season. So, I’ll take him to fall short of 41.5 rushing yards on Sunday Night Football.
The Giants are 6.0-point underdogs, which will likely force them to air it out to keep pace with the Chiefs. Additionally, teams have chosen to attack the Chiefs through the air. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Chiefs faced a 57% situation-neutral pass rate since last season.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, teams are attacking the Chiefs on the perimeter, with 50% of targets directed to players aligned wide. Meanwhile, Malik Nabers has aligned wide for 74.7% of his snaps.
Obviously, Nabers is also a stud. Among players with at least 35 routes this season, Nabers is first in air yards (410), second in air yards share (57.1%), eighth in target share (30.8%), second in first-read rate (46.0%), tied for seventh in receptions (14), first in receiving yards (238) and tied for sixth in yards per route run (2.87). Nabers is a matchup-proof monster, and FantasyPros projects him to have 84.1 receiving yards against the Chiefs.
Parlay Odds: +1100
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.