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NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Rams vs. Broncos

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The Broncos are 2.5-point underdogs in their own house against the visiting Rams. The Week 3 Sunday Night Football game features two teams that stumbled out of the blocks but rebounded in a big way in Week 2. As the slight spread suggests, it should be a close game, letting both teams play how they want on offense. Puka Nacua will likely be out this week since he’s listed as doubtful after missing practice all week, putting pressure on others to pick up the slack. Conversely, the Broncos will likely count on their prized offseason acquisition to continue to play well after a fantastic effort in Week 2.

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    NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Rams vs. Broncos

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos

      Los Angeles’s lethal backfield duo of Blake Corum and Kyren Williams is off to a fast start. The former has 22 rush attempts for 133 rushing yards and 6.05 yards per carry, and the latter has 23 for 126 and 5.48 yards per carry. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, Corum has an eye-popping 22.7% explosive run rate (runs gaining 10-plus yards), and Williams has a scintillating 15.8% explosive run rate this season.

      Explosive runs aren’t a new development for Corum. Among 51 running backs with at least 100 rush attempts since last year, including the playoffs, Corum is first in explosive run rate (16.9%) and Williams is tied for 21st (11.1%).

      They don’t need massive workloads to pile up rushing yards in chunks. Corum and Williams also have a sweet matchup. Running backs have lit up the Broncos for 143 rushing yards per game at 5.40 yards per carry through two games this year. As long as the game stays close, Corum and Williams should combine for enough work to reach triple-digit rushing yards, and the FantasyPros consensus projections agree, with Williams projected for 59.8 rushing yards and Corum projected for 53.8.

      Davante Adams dominated without Nacua in Week 2. Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, Adams had the following numbers against the Giants last week:

      • 72.7% route participation rate
      • 32.3% target share
      • 0.42 targets per route run rate (TPRR)
      • 40.0% first-read rate
      • 10 targets
      • 58.4% air yard share
      • 19.90-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
      • 8 receptions
      • 195 receiving yards
      • 8.13 yards per route run (Y/RR)

      Adams eviscerated the Giants’ secondary. Unfortunately for Adams and the Rams, the Broncos have a much more formidable secondary, and they can even use Patrick Surtain in shadow coverage to cool LA’s healthy alpha wideout.

      Matthew Stafford’s path of least resistance is throwing to others Surtain doesn’t cover. Sadly for Stafford, his pickings are slim beyond Adams. Only one other player besides Adams had more than two targets and a target share north of 6.5% against the Giants last week.

      Terrance Ferguson stepped up for the following marks in Week 2:

      • 66.7% route participation rate
      • 29.0% target share
      • 0.41 TPRR
      • 24.0% first-read rate
      • 9 targets
      • 17.6% air yard share
      • 6.67-yard aDOT
      • 6 receptions
      • 54 receiving yards
      • 2.45 Y/RR

      Ferguson’s aDOT was a far cry from his staggering 17.87-yard aDOT as a rookie, making for higher-percentage throws and allowing him to do damage after the catch.

      The second-year pro also left meat on the bone, dropping one of his targets. Ferguson’s matchup isn’t too shabby this week, either. The Broncos have allowed 54.5 receptions per game at 10.90 yards per target to tight ends on only 5.0 targets per game and 4.5 receptions per game through Week 2. Last year, Denver ceded 5.6 receptions per game, 60.1 receiving yards per game, and 7.46 yards per target to the position. So, Ferguson should find enough work to clear 50.5 receiving yards this week.

      The Rams revamped their secondary in the offseason, and the combo of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson is a big upgrade at the cornerback position. Nevertheless, Jaylen Waddle isn’t a slouch and can win his share of matchups against quality cornerbacks.

      Waddle’s first game in Denver, which coincided with Davis Webb’s first as the team’s play-caller, didn’t go well. The former Dolphin had only two first-read targets, three targets overall, a 10.7% target share, 0.11 TPRR, a 11.2% air yard share, 12 air yards, one reception, and two receiving yards. Yikes.

      Thankfully, Webb and Waddle got it together in Week 2, saying nothing of Bo Nix after a frantic showing in Week 1. In Week 2, Waddle produced the following numbers:

      • 71.0% route participation rate
      • 32.3% target share
      • 0.45 TPRR
      • 38.1% first-read rate
      • 10 targets
      • 54.5% air yard share
      • 8 receptions
      • 138 receiving yards
      • 6.27 Y/RR

      Waddle was even fed two screens as an easy way to get the ball in the speedster’s hands.

      Circling back to Waddle’s quarterback, it probably shouldn’t surprise anyone that he was much better in Denver in Week 2 than in Kansas City in Week 1.

      In 19 career road games, Nix has averaged a pitiful 195.2 passing yards per game at 5.33 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A). In 19 career home games, Nix has recorded 254.7 passing yards per game and 6.77 ANY/A.

      Nix should more closely resemble the competent quarterback he was en route to 288 yards in Week 2 after logging only 131 on the road in Week 1. As a result, FantasyPros consensus projections project Waddle to have 62.7 receiving yards on Sunday Night Football.

      Parlay Odds: +465

      Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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