NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Texans vs. Chiefs (Week 14)
The Chiefs and Texans are in the throes of a battle for a playoff berth in the AFC, and there isn’t much, if any, room for error. This Sunday Night Football game could have a playoff feel, and it could be a slugfest. The following five-leg NFL Sunday Night Football same-game parlay (SGP) leans into the expectations of a low-scoring affair, albeit with one negatively correlated leg to bump the line up a bit.
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NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Texans vs. Chiefs
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
- Leg 1: C.J. Stroud Under 229.5 Passing Yards (-111)
- Leg 2: Patrick Mahomes Under 241.5 Passing Yards (-113)
- Leg 3: Texans Team Total Under 21.5 Points (-180)
- Leg 4: Chiefs Alt Team Total Under 27.5 Points (-278)
- Leg 5: Rashee Rice 40+ Receiving Yards (-597)
Patrick Mahomes could be under fire all game on Sunday. Kansas City starting left tackle Josh Simmons is on injured reserve (IR). Starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor and starting right guard Trey Smith are listed as doubtful.
Cluster injuries on the offensive line are troubling for any quarterback and offense, but absences against the Texans are a nightmare. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Texans have allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (174) and have tied for the seventh-most sacks (34) this season.
Mahomes will find the sledding tough, and maybe Andy Reid will attempt to mitigate the offensive line injuries by leaning into the rushing attack a bit more and running a methodical, quick-hitting offense when they take to the air. FantasyPros projects Mahomes for just 238.5 passing yards.
Rashee Rice’s leg of 40+ receiving yards negatively correlates with Mahomes’ under for 241.5 passing yards. Nevertheless, someone must catch the ball in Kansas City’s passing attack, and 40 receiving yards is a low bar for Rice to clear. He’s averaging a career-high 81 receiving yards per game this year, with a median of 86. Rice has fallen short of 40 receiving yards only once in six games this year, and FantasyPros projects him for 68.5 receiving yards against the Texans.
Scoring could be challenging for the Chiefs. Still, using the alt line of 27.5 points leaves ample wiggle room for Mahomes to overcome the makeshift offensive line while staying under 27.5 points. Moreover, the Texans have allowed only one opponent to score more than 27.5 points this season.
The Texans are road underdogs, and C.J. Stroud has two ugly splits, albeit with some overlap, that suggest he’ll struggle to clear 229.5 passing yards this week. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Stroud has averaged 213 passing yards per game in 21 career road contests and 199.4 passing yards per game in 14 career games outdoors.
Stroud’s matchup is also suboptimal. The Chiefs have allowed the 12th-fewest passing yards per game (205.8). Furthermore, according to StatHead, only four quarterbacks have exceeded 229.5 passing yards against the Chiefs this season.
The Texans will struggle to score points if Stroud can’t effectively move the ball through the air. Houston’s offense isn’t anything to write home about, either. They’ve scored fewer than 21.5 points in seven out of 12 games this year, including five out of six on the road.
Parlay Odds: +500
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.