NFL Super Bowl LIX Predictions: Why the Total Will Go Under (Eagles vs. Chiefs)

by Austin MacMillan |
Feb 06, 2025

The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are set to square off in Super Bowl LIX, providing a rematch of the instant classic that saw the Chiefs defeat the Eagles 38-35 in an absolute shootout in Super Bowl LVII.

Both quarterbacks were phenomenal in that game, as Patrick Mahomes tossed three touchdowns and Jalen Hurts added one through the air and three on the ground. DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown both had massive days, combining for 195 yards and a touchdown with 45+ yard receptions by each. The tight ends feasted, with Travis Kelce and Dallas Goedert combining for 141 yards and a score. Isiah Pacheco and Jalen Hurts both racked up 70+ yards on the ground averaging better than 4.7 yards per carry with long runs of 24+ yards each.

In this article, I'm going to break down why that type of offensive explosion and efficiency should not be expected this year and provide the reasoning to bet the under 49.5 (-110) in Super Bowl LIX.

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Super Bowl LIX Betting Preview: Bet the Under

Playing Keepaway

When Philadelphia has the ball, I expect them to lean heavily on their rushing attack to maintain possession and keep the ball away from Patrick Mahomes. The Eagles tallied the most rushing attempts (621) in the regular season by a wide margin, ultimately leading the NFL in average time of possession per game at 32:07. Not surprisingly, they were also tied with the Ravens for the top spot in terms of first downs gained via rush. Their 6.6% turnover rate ranked fourth overall.

The Chiefs are reasonably well-equipped to defend the run-heavy offense the Eagles deploy, as they finished the regular season top-10 in rushing yards allowed and tied for fourth in terms of average yards allowed per rush attempt. The Chiefs have also done an exceptional job of limiting explosive runs, as they surrendered a run of 40+ yards in just one game this season and ranked 10th overall in terms of missed tackles. This is obviously of paramount importance against Saquon Barkley, who recorded runs of 40+ yards in seven different games this season.

History Won’t Repeat Itself

Regarding the much-maligned Eagles’ passing game, I expect the Chiefs to defend against the types of explosive plays they fell victim to in Super Bowl LVII at all costs. Their regular season profile tends to agree, as the Chiefs allowed the sixth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers this season despite surrendering a league-leading 1,191 yards to tight ends, illustrating a concerted effort to funnel the ball to the middle of the field defensively rather than allowing explosive plays along the boundary.

Kansas City has also been among the best in the NFL at generating pressure on the opposing quarterback, ranking sixth in quarterback hurry rate, fifth in quarterback pressure rate and second in quarterback knockdown rate. Put together, I think Kansas City is poised to limit explosive runs for the Eagles and generate pressure in passing situations, forcing Philly to take advantage of the middle of the field. I think Philly is willing to oblige, favoring control of the time of possession with a run-heavy methodical offensive attack.

Lack of Offensive Fireworks

Regarding the Chiefs offense, this year's iteration of the team is scoring nearly a full touchdown per game less than they did in their 2022 campaign, eclipsing 30 points for the first time the entire season in their AFC Conference Championship win over Buffalo. Their rushing attack has been especially poor, ranking bottom-10 in total rushing yards and sixth-worst in rushing yards per attempt.

It seems Isiah Pacheco has still not fully recovered from his injury earlier this year, as Kareem Hunt (who was not on an active NFL roster to begin this season) has been given a lion's share of the work down the stretch. Their passing game hasn't been too much better, as the aging Travis Kelce put up career lows in terms of yards and touchdowns. DeAndre Hopkins burst onto the scene with an 89-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Buccaneers in early November but has been virtually non-existent since, recording only two scores and eclipsing 50 yards only twice in the following 10 games. Hollywood Brown and Mahomes haven't had enough time to build their rapport, and even though Xavier Worthy has proven to be a threat in this offense, most of his touches are coming within a few yards of the line of scrimmage.

No matter how the Chiefs choose to attack, they'll be going against one of the top defenses in the league. Philly led the NFL in yards allowed per play, first downs allowed, passes defended, passing yards allowed, yards per completion and net yards allowed per passing attempt. They trailed only the Chargers in terms of points allowed per game (by 0.1 points) and ranked top-10 in completion rate allowed, opponent's passer rating, missed tackles, rushing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed per attempt.

A lot of credit can be attributed to defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, second-year stud defensive lineman Jalen Carter, linebacker Zack Baun and the outstanding play of rookie defensivebacks Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell, all of whom were not a part of the equation in Super Bowl LVII. Though Vic Fangio holds a 0-8 career record in games he has coached or coordinated against Mahomes, Fangio has done a much better job than most when it comes to defending Mahomes.

In those games, Mahomes has a 64.3% completion percentage (66.6% career), 233 yards per game (288.86 career) and 1.25 touchdowns per game (2.19 career). Kansas City will not be able to run the ball effectively in this game and the explosive passing attack simply has not been there this year (20th in net yards per attempt, 26th in yards per completion), meaning they will be forced to methodically move the ball down the field as well.

Bottom Line

Altogether, this game is a perfect storm for an under. Neither team has a prolific passing attack and both defenses are built to limit explosive plays. The Eagles are proficient at running the ball and churning the clock. Mahomes and company are more than happy to dink and dunk the ball down the field offensively. Neither team is especially turnover-prone, limiting the opportunity for backbreaking scores resulting from turnovers, and the current form of Eagles placekicker Jake Elliott is shaky, at best.

The Chiefs do an excellent job of pressuring the passer and funneling the ball to the middle of the field and the Eagles have debatably the best defense with the best defensive coordinator in the entire league. Possession of the football will be of ultimate importance in Super Bowl LIX. I don't see any way this game breaks the 50-point barrier.

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