NFL Super Bowl LIX Sports Betting Preview: Why the Eagles Will Win (2025)

by Austin MacMillan |
Feb 05, 2025

For the second time in three seasons, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will face off against Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl. While many are lamenting this repeat matchup, Super Bowl LVII delivered from an entertainment standpoint, seeing the Chiefs overcome a 10-point halftime deficit to eventually defeat the Eagles with a last-minute field goal.

That game also provided potentially the best performance we have ever seen from Jalen Hurts, as he racked up 374 total yards with four total touchdowns and a two-point conversion in the clutch. While both teams have changed in many ways over the prior two seasons, the current spread of Chiefs -1.5 tells us we should expect another thriller. In this article, I will break down the case for the Eagles (+105) to stop the Chiefs’ quest for a three-peat and emerge victorious in Super Bowl LIX.

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Super Bowl LIX Betting Preview: The Case for the Philadelphia Eagles

Underdogs Are Barking

The Super Bowl has been priced extremely efficiently from a historical perspective, with underdogs holding a 29-27-2 against the spread (ATS) record all-time. The dogs have been barking loudly in recent years, however, with a 16-8 ATS record over the previous 24 seasons including 4-0 in the past four years with three of those teams winning outright.

That bodes well for the Eagles, where advantages abound on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Philly finished with Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) top-graded offensive line for the third consecutive season, led by Jordan Mailata as the top-graded offensive lineman in all of football.

Running Away With the Super Bowl

These beasts combined with the incredible talent of Saquon Barkley and the mobility of Jalen Hurts resulted in a truly special season running the football, as the Eagles finished second in terms of rushing yards per game (179.3) and touchdowns (29). They also ranked fifth overall in rushing yards per attempt (4.9).

Barkley will almost certainly bring home this season's Offensive Player of the Year award, rushing for over 2,000 yards and combining for 15 total scores while recording a rush of 50+ yards in five of the Eagles’ regular-season games. He has continued his dominance in the playoffs, rushing for 118+ yards in each game with five touchdowns and runs of 60+ yards in two of the three games. This ground-based attack is precisely how to attack a Chiefs defense that has frankly been gashed by the run during these playoffs, surrendering 147+ rushing yards to both Buffalo and Houston.

Hurts and the Passing Game

While Jalen Hurts has endured much criticism during this 2024 campaign, he ended the season ranked top-10 in QB Rating and completion rate and top-five in yards per attempt and passer rating with an interception rate of just 1.4% (eighth-lowest of 43 eligible signal-callers). Hurts doesn't need to be the star of the show in this game, he just needs to avoid catastrophic turnovers and exploit advantages the Eagles have through the air, namely at the tight end position.

The Chiefs conceded the second-most receptions to tight ends this season for a league-leading 1,191 yards, which could be a major problem for them considering Dallas Goedert just tallied seven receptions for 85 yards, with four or more receptions and 45+ yards in each playoff game.

I haven't even mentioned A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith yet, who are among the best tandem of receivers in the NFL and should create plenty of favorable matchups against a Chiefs defense ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in receiving yards allowed per game.

The Eagles should be able to control the offensive line of scrimmage, leaning on their efficient rushing attack to control the time of possession. In passing downs, I expect their line to hold up against Chris Jones and company, buying time for Hurts to exploit the middle of the field with Goedert and Smith. Altogether, I give the Eagles’ offense the advantage over the Chiefs’ defense.

Defense Wins Championships

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles boast debatably the top defense in the NFL. They trailed only the Chargers (by 0.1 points) in terms of points allowed per game, allowing the fewest amount of passing yards and total yards per game. A lot of credit can be attributed to defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, second-year stud defensive lineman Jalen Carter, linebacker Zack Baun and the outstanding play of rookie defensivebacks Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell, all of whom were not a part of the equation in Super Bowl LVII.

The Chiefs offense it will be tasked with stopping is categorically inferior to its previous iterations, ranking 14th or worse in points per game (nearly a full touchdown per game less than the 2022 team), total yards per game and passing yards per game. Their rushing attack in particular has struggled as of late, as it seems Isiah Pacheco has still not fully recovered from his midseason injury, giving an aging Kareem Hunt far too many carries.

Though they found some success on the ground against a really poor Buffalo defense in the AFC Championship game, they had failed to eclipse 70 rushing yards in the three games prior and finished bottom-10 overall in total rushing yards and sixth-worst in rushing yards per attempt. The Eagles’ defensive front has been solid as well, ranking top-10 in rushing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed per attempt and missed tackles.

Regarding the Kansas City passing attack, though Vic Fangio holds a 0-8 career record in games he has coached or coordinated against Mahomes, Fangio has done a much better job than most when it comes to defending Mahomes. In those games, Mahomes has a 64.3% completion percentage (66.6% career), 233 yards per game (288.86 career) and 1.25 touchdowns per game (2.19 career).

This version of the Chiefs offense has also really struggled to find consistency through the air; though we've seen flashes from guys like DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown, we've seen them be complete non-factors just as often. Hopkins has tallied just two touchdowns and has recorded 50+ receiving yards just twice since the first week of November. Brown has yet to record 50+ receiving yards since his return from injury. Even Travis Kelce is coming off of his least productive year in terms of yards and touchdowns in his entire career. He basically no-showed against a bad Bills defense the week after everyone thought we had gotten the return of vintage playoff Kelce.

Xavier Worthy has undoubtedly been the most consistent offensive weapon for the Chiefs down the stretch, but most of those opportunities have come at or around the line of scrimmage rather than deep down the field. Overall, the Chiefs finished ranked 20th in net yards per attempt and 26th in average yards per completion, and they'll be up against an Eagles defense that led the league in passes defended, net yards allowed per attempt and yards allowed per completion.

I foresee this Eagles defense limiting any sort of explosives from the Kansas City offense, forcing them to move the ball methodically down the field each time they have the ball. Again, I give the Eagles’ defense the advantage over the Chiefs’ offense.

Bottom Line

In totality, I have the Eagles as the objectively better team in Super Bowl LIX, they just happen to find themselves as slight underdogs because of the undeniable greatness of Patrick Mahomes. The Eagles have the clear advantage on both sides of the line of scrimmage, they have the more talented and better-coached defense, they have one of the best rushing attacks in recent memory with one of the most explosive players to ever play the position and they can exploit a glaring weakness in the middle of the Kansas City defense through the air.

Similar to the previous Super Bowl showdown, this game will almost inevitably come down to one or two plays to decide the outcome. I won't go as far as to say the wrong team is favored in this game, but I do think the Eagles are the benefactor of those pivotal plays this time around. I like the Eagles to hoist the Lombardi Trophy when it's all said and done.

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