NFL Super Bowl LX Player Props & Bets (Patriots vs. Seahawks)
The Super Bowl is the last chance we'll have to bet on meaningful NFL games for seven months. We can wet our beaks with the NBA and NHL, March Madness, MLB, the PGA, and various other sports, but the NFL remains the king of sports betting.
Savor this opportunity, but bet judiciously. The sportsbooks offer hundreds of bets for the Super Bowl, and it's easy for a bettor to feel like a kid in a candy store. Resist the urge to bet everything. Stick with the wagers you feel strongly about.
I'll give you my favorite player props for Patriots-Seahawks in just a moment. For those of you checking out my player props article for the first time this season, you should know that I stick with yardage props, which I've found to be more predictable than other types of player props.
First, a quick recap of the picks from the conference championship round:
Wins: Rhamondre Stevenson over 47.5 rushing yards, Courtland Sutton under 50.5 receiving yards, Kenneth Walker over 21.5 receiving yards, Colby Parkinson over 25.5 receiving yards
Losses: Jarrett Stidham over 199.5 passing yards, Rashid Shaheed under 24.5 receiving yards
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Seahawks vs. Patriots Super Bowl LX Props
Last week: 4-2 | Season record: 89-63 | All odds are from Hard Rock Bet.
Kenneth Walker III Under 70.5 Rushing Yards
I have two favorite bets for this Super Bowl. The first is the Under on the game total (45.5 points). The second is the under on Kenneth Walker's rushing yardage.
Walker has been terrific over his last five games, averaging 85.2 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry since Week 16. Walker's tag-team partner in the Seattle backfield, Zach Charbonnet, tore his ACL in the Seahawks' divisional-round game against the 49ers, which suggests that Walker could get a massive workload in the Super Bowl.
However, the Patriots' run defense is nasty.
There was a late-season stretch when the New England run defense faltered, but the Patriots were missing either one or both of DT Milton Williams and LB Robert Spillane at the time. When Williams and Spillane have both been healthy, the New England run defense has been an iron curtain.
In the 14 games Williams and Spillane have played together this season, opposing RBs have averaged 54.3 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry. In New England's three playoff games, opposing RBs have averaged 38.7 rushing yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry.
In those 14 games, the most rushing yards any individual running back had against the Patriots was 58. The Jets' Breece Hall did it in Week 11 - in a game that Williams left with an ankle injury after playing just eight snaps. The next-best rushing total by any RB against the Williams/Spillane combo? Sean Tucker's 53 rushing yards for the Buccaneers in Week 10.
No other running back reached 50 rushing yards in the 14 games that Williams and Spillane played together. James Cook had 49 rushing yards in his one game against the Williams/Spillane duo, DeVon Achane had 30 rushing yards against them, and Bijan Robinson had 46 rushing yards against them.
I'm smashing the Under here, but I’m going to wait until Sunday to bet this one, because I think this number is more likely to go up than down.
Kenneth Walker III Over 21.5 Receiving Yards
While I'm bearish on Kenneth Walker's rushing outlook, I'm bullish on his receiving outlook.
Walker has topped this number in each of his last three games, with at least 29 receiving yards in all three contests. He's averaged 3.7 catches and 38.0 receiving yards per game over that stretch.
Seattle's running backs have been more involved in the passing game late in the year. Since Week 11, the Seahawks' RBs have combined to average 5.1 targets, 4.3 catches, and 39.1 receiving yards per game.
The Patriots allowed the fifth-most receptions and sixth-most targets to running backs during the regular season.
Walker isn't likely to have a good day as a runner, but I like his chances to be productive as a pass catcher.
Hunter Henry Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
Last week, I touted the Over on Colby Parkinson's receiving yardage against the Seahawks. The total was set at 25.5 yards, and Parkinson finished with three catches for 62 yards.
The Seahawks have been murder on wide receivers this season, but they've been far more generous to tight ends. Seattle allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers but the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends during the regular season.
New England has a capable but unexceptional group of wide receivers. Given the matchup, Patriots QB Drake Maye might need to lean heavily on veteran TE Hunter Henry.
Henry had 60 catches and a career-high 768 yards during the regular season, which works out to 45.2 receiving yards per game. He had three catches for 64 yards in the Patriots' postseason opener vs. the Chargers, but he's had only three catches for 17 yards in the two games since.
I expect Henry to be busy on Sunday and surpass this number.
Mack Hollins Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
In New England's first six games of the season Mack Hollins played no more than 65% of the offensive snaps in any game and averaged 2.0 targets, 1.5 catches, and 11.7 receiving yards.
However, beginning in Week 7, Hollins got a noticeable usage boost. In the 10 games he's played since Week 7, Hollins has averaged 5.5 targets, 3.9 catches, and 53.1 receiving yards per game.
Hollins missed the Patriots' last two regular-season games and their first two playoff games with an abdominal injury. He returned for the AFC Championship Game, had a 60.9% snap share and had two catches for 51 yards vs. the Broncos on two targets.
The guess here is that Hollins plays more snaps against the Seahawks than he did against the Broncos. Hollins is an exceptional blocker, and the Patriots are going to need his blocking skills to help their running game pierce an outstanding Seattle run defense that ranks No. 1 in DVOA.
This is a fairly low bar for Hollins to clear. Based on how he's been used since mid-October, he has a good chance to clear it.