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NFL Thursday Night Football Picks: Falcons vs. Packers (Week 3)

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The Green Bay Packers are 5.5-point favorites at home against the visiting Atlanta Falcons. The visitors are welcoming back a more competent quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., than the duo of Cooper Rush and Jack Strand. Meanwhile, the Packers might need to lean on their rocket-armed signal-caller because of a lousy running game. Below are our top NFL Thursday Night Football picks for Week 3.

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    Best Week 3 NFL Thursday Night Football Picks

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Drake London 80+ Receiving Yards (+151)

    Michael Penix Jr. returns this week, a huge boost for Drake London’s receiving outlook. In fact, it’s so good I’m getting greedy and taking an alt line on his receiving yards prop.

    According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, London has played 12 games in which Penix has played at least 20 snaps. In those games, the big-bodied wideout has produced the following stats:

    • 86.7% route participation rate
    • 32.5% target share
    • 0.35 targets per route run (TPRR)
    • 40.2% first-read rate
    • 42.9% air yards share
    • 6.8 receptions per game
    • 96.8 receiving yards per game
    • 3.12 yards per route run (YPRR)

    In those games, working from his least productive to his most productive receiving output, London has recorded 42, 49, 55, 55, 59, 104, 106, 110, 118, 119, 158 and 187 receiving yards, putting him over 79.5 receiving yards seven times, with a median of 105.

    It wouldn’t be crazy to take an even higher alt line for London’s receiving yardage, but taking 80+ bakes in some rust for Penix to shake off, and this is the first game Penix has played for Kevin Stefanski.

    Michael Penix Over 206.5 Passing Yards (-111)

    This prop is interesting. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Michael Penix Jr. has averaged 226.6 passing yards per game over 12 starts. He’s gone over 206.5 passing yards in seven of those starts.

    Penix hasn’t just benefited from playing his home games indoors, either. Instead, the lefty has slung it for over 206.5 passing yards in three of his five road starts, and all three were outdoors.

    Stefanski’s play-calling tendencies aren’t too shabby for Penix’s and Drake London’s passing and receiving outlooks, either. In Stefanski’s final two seasons in Cleveland, despite having putrid quarterback options, the Browns ranked 16th in pass rate over expected (0.6% PROE).

    Penix, for his flaws, is likely better than most of the quarterbacks Stefanski has coached over the last two seasons, and a negative game script for the underdogs would force them to pass.

    Jordan Love Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-113)

    The Packers have a cluster of injuries to their offensive line, and Jayden Reed left last week’s contest on a backboard with a severe injury. Nevertheless, Green Bay will likely need to lean on Jordan Love’s arm.

    According to SumerSports, the Packers are dead last in expected points added (EPA) per rush (-0.43). Green Bay’s rushing attack has been a stone-cold disaster. They’re tied for 22nd in EPA per pass (-0.09), so it’s not as if the passing attack has lit the world on fire.

    Regardless, Matt LaFleur seems to recognize the passing attack is markedly better than the rushing attack. As a result, the Packers are 12th in PROE (3.8%) this season. They’re also playing faster, ranking 10th in situation-neutral pace, per the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0. Green Bay’s pace boosts Love’s passing outlook and the yardage potential for the aforementioned London and Penix.

    Love followed up a 387-yard passing effort in Week 1 against the Vikings with 145 yards in Week 2 against the Jets. It’s not ideal that his passing yardage cratered. Still, Love has a matchup against an Atlanta squad that just coughed up 287 passing yards to Bryce Young after allowing 221 passing yards to a completely washed-up Aaron Rodgers.

    Love’s matchup is also less imposing with cornerback A.J. Terrell on injured reserve (IR). FantasyPros projects Love for 238.5 passing yards on Thursday Night Football.

    Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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