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NFL Thursday Night Football Picks: Jaguars vs. Ravens (Week 9)

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This week’s Thursday Night Football contest lost all of its luster when Lamar Jackson suffered a serious thumb injury last week. Making matters worse for the Ravens, Tyler Huntley also got hurt. As a result, the Jaguars are 10-point road favorites, and the total is only 39.5 points. Yuck. Hopefully, the following three player props make things more interesting than the spread and total suggest, if not for a little gambling action. I’m running pure to start the season, with a 14-7 record on my NFL Thursday Night Football picks, up 7.13 units. I’m looking to stay hot with this week’s picks.

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    Best Week 9 NFL Thursday Night Football Picks

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Derrick Henry Under 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-113)

    DaVon Hamilton landed on injured reserve (IR), removing a run-stuffer from Jacksonville’s defensive line. This isn’t ideal for their run defense. Still, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, the Jaguars rank second in rush attempts allowed per game (17.6), first in rushing yards allowed per game (57.7) and are tied for first in yards allowed per carry (3.28) to running backs this season.

    Jacksonville has room to slide in run defense while remaining a nightmare matchup for Derrick Henry. The game script will likely go against Henry. The Ravens are double-digit underdogs. King Henry has gone under 17.5 rush attempts in three straight games, including logging a season-low 11 runs in a game that got away from the Ravens last week.

    Even if things get ugly and the Ravens decide to run the ball and keep the clock running to end it as quickly as possible, doing so with Henry in a blowout loss would be coaching malpractice. Unless the game goes much differently than the betting market suggests, Henry will likely fall under 17.5 rush attempts for his fourth straight game.

    Joe Fagnano 2+ Interceptions (+257)

    Joe Fagnano is an undrafted rookie who was thrust into an impossible assignment last week, relieving two injured quarterbacks ahead of him. He has received first-team reps this week, but it’s a short week. Moreover, Fagnano is nursing an ankle injury.

    Fagnano threw one interception (4.8% interception rate) on 25 dropbacks last week, with a 4.8% turnover-worthy-throw rate. Jacksonville has recorded nine interceptions in seven games this season, picking off Joe Burrow, Drake Maye and Daniel Jones twice each. Fagnano will be the next victim.

    Brenton Strange -14.5 Receiving Yards vs. Mark Andrews (-115)

    It’s no contest which starting tight end has been better this season. Among 38 tight ends with at least 100 routes this year, Brenton Strange has produced the following numbers (rankings in parentheses):

    • 66.4% route participation rate (15th)
    • 17.4% target share (12th)
    • 18.9% first-read rate (13th)
    • 16.1% air yard share (10th)
    • 4.0 receptions per game (15th)
    • 47.7 receiving yards per game (9th)
    • 2.26 yards per route run  (4th)

    Meanwhile, Mark Andrews has the following numbers (rankings in parentheses):

    • 65.6% route participation rate (17th)
    • 18.0% target share (8th)
    • 19.9% first-read rate (11th)
    • 15.8% air yard share (11th)
    • 3.6 receptions per game (T-18th)
    • 27.3 receiving yards per game (26th)
    • 1.23 yards per route run (29th)

    Andrews has been targeted at a reasonable clip, but he’s done nothing with his targets. Joe Fagnano is, obviously, a downgrade from Jackson and Huntley. Trevor Lawrence is a markedly better quarterback.

    So, even if the Ravens are playing catch-up, as expected, and the Jaguars take the air out of the ball while protecting a lead, Strange doesn’t need many opportunities to outproduce Andrews by at least 15 receiving yards tonight on efficiency. FantasyPros projects Strange for 45.8 receiving yards and Andrews for only 27.8.

    Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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