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NFL Thursday Night Football Picks: Lions vs. Bills (Week 2)

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The Buffalo Bills are opening their new stadium on Thursday Night Football as 4.5-point favorites against the visiting Detroit Lions. Both teams won exciting shootouts, with the Lions needing overtime at home and the Bills going into Houston and lighting up their vaunted defense. Both offenses are exciting, and this could be an over-bettor’s dream.

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    Best Week 2 NFL Thursday Night Football Picks

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    James Cook Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

    James Cook didn’t have an Earth-shattering showing in Buffalo’s offensive outburst in Week 1. Instead, he toted the rock 13 times for 57 yards, with a long of 12 yards. Still, those 13 carries represented 86.7% of Buffalo’s backfield’s 15 rush attempts.

    Cook is the reigning NFL rushing champion, averaging 95.4 rushing yards per game, which jumps to 100.4 rushing yards per game if you eliminate Week 18, when he played only two snaps in a meaningless contest for the Bills, where they rested starters. When including two playoff games, Cook still averaged 93.9 rushing yards per game last season. Again, excluding the meaningless Week 18 contest, Cook surpassed 73.5 rushing yards in 13 of 18 contests.

    He also has eye-catching numbers in wins. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, Cook has averaged 16.3 rush attempts per game and 84.7 rushing yards per game in 28 games he played in which the Bills won. The Bills are favored, and if they live up to the betting expectations, he should clear 73.5 rushing yards.

    Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

    Week 1 is often a liar, but it was also the first look at Jim Leonard as a defensive coordinator in the NFL. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, the Bills played zone coverage 83.3% of the time and two-high coverage 61.9% of the time. Last year, the NFL average for zone coverage was 70.5% and two-high coverage was 49.3% in the regular season.

    Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the NFL’s best wide receivers and can beat up on man and zone coverage, as well as single-high and two-high coverage. Nevertheless, since 2024, he’s posted a blistering 0.28 targets per route run (TPRR) and 2.61 yards per route run (Y/RR) against zone coverage compared to 0.32 TPRR and 2.49 Y/RR against man. In addition, the Sun God has had a 0.33 TPRR and 2.72 Y/RR against two-high coverage and 0.27 TPRR and 2.43 Y/RR against single-high coverage during those years.

    St. Brown didn’t clear 79.5 receiving yards in the opener, but the Lions played with a lead for most of Week 1’s contest, scoring a touchdown in the first quarter and the game’s next two touchdowns in the third quarter. The Saints didn’t get on the board until scoring a touchdown at the 4:27 mark in the third quarter. If the underdog Lions are in a negative game script or shootout, St. Brown can enjoy more success in Week 2 and surpass 79.5 receiving yards.

    Dalton Kincaid Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

    Dalton Kincaid was exceptionally efficient last season. Among 190 players with at least 200 routes last season, Kincaid was tied for 10th in targets per route run (0.27) and third in yards per route run (3.04). The fly in the ointment was his 38.6% snap share and 45.7% route participation rate.

    Oh, how things changed for the better for him in Week 1. The fourth-year pro had an 80.8% snap share and 68.8% route participation rate against the Texans. Kincaid ripped off the following numbers in an impressive Week 1 showing:

    • 20.7% target share
    • 6 targets
    • 20.0% first-read rate
    • 28.7% air yards share
    • 94 air yards
    • 5 receptions
    • 130 receiving yards
    • 5.61 Y/RR

    Kincaid can build on his big showing against the Lions. In Week 1, the Lions faced an NFL-high 14 targets to tight ends, allowing seven receptions and 87 receiving yards to the tight ends on the Saints. Last season, the Lions ranked 17th in receiving yards allowed per game (54.8) to the position. Kincaid is a markedly better-than-average tight end and can barbecue the Lions for more than 49.5 receiving yards.

    Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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