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NFL Thursday Night Football Picks: Panthers vs. Packers (Week 8)

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The Packers lost a nail-biter against NFC North rival Detroit in Week 7, and the Panthers were steamrolled by NFC South rival Tampa Bay. Still, the Packers are modest 3.5-point favorites on Thursday Night Football, and the game total is 47.5 points. It projects to be a competitive contest, something to consider when making NFL Thursday Night Football picks.

A blossoming speedy young wideout for the Packers should have a big play up his sleeve in a plus matchup on Thursday Night Football. That said, Green Bay got a key offensive cog back last week, and he could be heavily featured this week. Finally, an ancillary piece for the Panthers has a brutal matchup and might have a quiet effort.

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    Best Week 8 NFL Thursday Night Football Picks

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Matthew Golden Longest Reception Over 24.5 Yards (-109)

    Matthew Golden is having a sensational sophomore season. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, among eight Packers with at least 50 routes this season, Golden is first in target share (24.7%), targets per route run (0.28 TPRR), first-read rate (28.1%) and air yard share (39.6%). The second-year speedster has a 14.04-yard average depth of target (aDOT).

    Golden’s vertical usage has produced, too. The sophomore wideout has five receptions for over 24.5 yards, reeling in at least one in four games. Conversely, the Panthers can be burned for a big reception.

    They’ve allowed at least one 25-yard reception to Isaac TeSlaa, Jameson Williams, Rome Odunze, Kalif Raymond, Denzel Boston and Sam LaPorta. Golden should be the next player to log at least a 25-yard reception against the Panthers.

    Josh Jacobs Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

    Through Week 6, the Packers had a 7.8% pass rate over expected (PROE). In Josh Jacobs’ Week 7 return, Green Bay had a 6.4% PROE. It was a small step back, but it was something. Meanwhile, Carolina’s defense ranks 29th in PROE against (-2.6%) this season, and they were just curbstomped by Tampa Bay’s rushing attack. Tampa Bay’s trio of Bucky Irving, Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker rumbled for 246 yards and 5.47 yards per carry.

    It was the second time a team’s backfield exceeded 200 rushing yards against the Panthers this season. Carolina has allowed the most rushing yards per game (126.8) and yards per carry (5.21) to running backs this season. D’Andre Swift (124 rushing yards), Irving (106 rushing yards), Kyle Monangai (100 rushing yards), Gainwell (88 rushing yards), Bijan Robinson (72 rushing yards) and Quinshon Judkins (70 rushing yards) each surpassed 59.5 rushing yards against the Panthers this season.

    Jacobs is once again the Packers’ lead back. In his first game of the season, he handled 11 of Green Bay’s backfield’s 17 rush attempts (64.7%). Jacobs managed only 36 rushing yards on 11 carries for 3.27 yards per carry. Nevertheless, his workload was rock-solid, and if he shook off some rust, he could be more efficient and take a larger piece of the pie against Carolina’s pitiful run defense. Jacobs topped 59.5 rushing yards in nine of 16 games last season, and he should clear the over on Thursday for the first time this season.

    Darren Waller Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-116)

    Darren Waller was the only bright spot for the Panthers in their Week 7 beatdown. He secured a 50-yard touchdown reception on one of his two targets. It was his only reception.

    In the five games Jalen Coker was healthy this season, Waller recorded the following numbers:

    • 43.2% snap share
    • 48.4% route participation rate
    • 7.8% target share
    • 0.15 TPRR
    • 8.8% first-read rate
    • 10.7% air yard share
    • 2.2 receptions per game
    • 32.4 receiving yards per game
    • 1.57 yards per route run (YPRR)

    Waller went over 20.5 receiving yards in four of those five games. However, he posted a bagel in a challenging Week 6 matchup against the Eagles.

    The veteran tight end has another challenging matchup this week. The Packers have allowed the fewest receiving yards per game (32.9) and the seventh-fewest yards per target (5.90) to tight ends this season. T.J. Hockenson (36 receiving yards) and Josh Oliver (22 receiving yards) went over 20.5 receiving yards against the Packers in Week 1, but Cade Otton (37 receiving yards) and Brevyn Spann-Ford (35 receiving yards) are the only tight ends to clear that threshold since.

    Furthermore, Green Bay’s coverage tendencies are suboptimal for Waller’s receiving outlook. The Packers have played zone 79.3% of the time (73.3% league average) and two-high coverage 66.3% of the time (50.6% league average) this season. In the five games Coker played, Waller had 0.15 TPRR and 1.61 YPRR on 66 routes against zone coverage but only 0.09 TPRR and 1.29 YPRR on 45 routes against two-high coverage. Thus, Waller should fall short of 20.5 receiving yards on Thursday Night Football.

    Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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