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NFL Thursday Night Football Picks: Patriots vs. Bears (Week 7)

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Week 7’s Thursday Night Football contest features two exciting young quarterbacks from the 2024 NFL Draft, and it should be a competitive affair. The Chicago Bears are 3-point favorites against the visiting New England Patriots, and the game’s total is a shootout-friendly 50.5 points. Two overs are among the most appealing NFL Thursday Night Football picks in this potential shootout, but not everyone is likely to get in on the action; an under from a backfield that may have shifted from a two-back committee to three is also appealing.

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    Best Week 7 NFL Thursday Night Football Picks

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Drake Maye Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

    Drake Maye has cleared 29.5 rushing yards only twice in six games. However, he’s averaged 30.8 rushing yards per game, though his median is 24.5.

    Maye’s legs have been a big part of his game recently, though. Since Week 4, New England’s dual-threat quarterback has rushed for 54, 25 and 24 yards.

    According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, Maye has 187 scramble yards on 20 scrambles and 185 total rushing yards on 34 attempts. Maye has eight kneel-downs for -10 yards. A little back-of-the-napkin math shows he has eight rushing yards on six rush attempts when you exclude scrambles and kneel-downs.

    Not coincidentally, Maye’s three highest rushing totals this year came in the three games he dropped back the most - a loss to the Seahawks in Week 1 (47 rushing yards), a shootout win against the Bills in Week 4 (54 rushing yards) and a blowout win against the Raiders in Week 5 (25 rushing yards).

    The Patriots are underdogs on Thursday Night Football, which increases the odds that Maye will drop back often and, in turn, increases his scrambling opportunities. FantasyPros’ consensus projections have Maye projected to rush for 32.3 yards against Chicago.

    Rhamondre Stevenson Under 42.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

    A game script that forces Drake Maye to drop back often would positively correlate with Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing under. Stevenson has gone under 42.5 rushing yards only twice in six contests.

    However, he’s coming off a season-low 2.6 yards per carry against the Jets, and his season-high carries (18) came in Week 1, when TreVeyon Henderson was out.

    Stevenson has stunk this season. Among 33 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts, Stevenson is 29th in rushing yards per game (43.8), 20th in yards per carry (3.70), 22nd in yards before contact per attempt (1.54), 20th in stuff rate (46.5%) and 21st in rush yards over expected (-46.5).

    Stevenson’s inefficiency, coupled with Henderson’s inefficiency, has opened the door for Corey Kiner to factor into the mix. It could be another three-way backfield after Mike Vrabel praised Kiner’s hard running.

    Kiner had season highs for rush attempts (11) and rushing yards (57) last week, and he’s gone over 50 rushing yards in back-to-back games. The Patriots haven’t had a running back reach even 80 rushing yards in a game, and Kiner’s rushing totals over the last two weeks were the third- and fourth-highest for New England’s running backs this season.

    Stevenson needs volume to eclipse 42.5 rushing yards at his inefficient rate, and his volume appears to be drying up, as Kiner forces his way into backfield work.

    D’Andre Swift Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

    D’Andre Swift isn’t a bell-cow running back, and he’ll share work. Still, his 36.8% route participation rate paces Chicago’s backfield, ahead of Kyle Monangai (25.8%) and Roschon Johnson (19.3%).

    In Caleb Williams’ three starts this season (Week 1, Week 2, Week 6), Swift has recorded the following receiving numbers:

    • 38.0% route participation rate
    • 11.0% target share
    • 0.24 targets per route run (TPRR)
    • 7.8% first-read rate
    • 3.7 targets per game
    • 3.3 receptions per game
    • 30.0 receiving yards per game
    • 1.96 yards per route run (YPRR)

    Swift had 10, 54 and 26 receiving yards in those three games, putting him over 17.5 receiving yards in two of Williams’ three starts, including his return from his hamstring injury.

    Williams had only one two-yard scramble last week, which could suggest he plans to run less while giving his hamstring more time to fully recover. Swift also has a plus matchup in the receiving game.

    The Patriots have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game (36) and the seventh-most yards per target (6.97) to running backs this season.

    New England has allowed Jaylen Warren (34 receiving yards), Rico Dowdle (22 receiving yards), Ashton Jeanty (50 receiving yards) and Braelon Allen (26 receiving yards) to best 17.5 receiving yards against them this season. Finally, FantasyPros projects Swift for 20.3 receiving yards against the Patriots this week.

    Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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