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NFL Thursday Night Football Picks: Seahawks vs. Broncos (Week 6)

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The Denver Broncos are 2.5-point underdogs at home against the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks. Sean Payton couldn’t fix his struggling quarterback in his first game back in charge of calling plays, and he leaned heavily on one running back as the workhorse. Meanwhile, Seattle’s new offensive coordinator, Brian Fleury, hasn’t deviated from what worked in the passing attack last year under Klint Kubiak. Let’s dive into the top Thursday Night Football picks for Seahawks vs. Broncos.

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    Best Week 6 NFL Thursday Night Football Picks

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Bo Nix Under 199.5 Passing Yards (-111)

    Bo Nix has struggled mightily this season. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, among 37 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks, Nix ranks:

    • 32nd in completion rate (59.9%)
    • 21st in adjusted completion rate (76.1%)
    • 30th in completion percentage over expectation (-1.0% CPOE)
    • 27th in passing yards per game (188.4)
    • 25th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (5.35 ANY/A)

    Nix has reached the 200-passing-yard threshold only twice in five starts, and he threw for a season-low 123 yards in Sean Payton’s first game back in the play-caller seat last week.

    Nix has his work cut out for him this week. On a short week, he’s tasked with facing an incredibly stingy pass defense. The Seahawks are second in passing yards allowed per game (166.8) to quarterbacks this season. Seattle hasn’t allowed even 190 passing yards to any quarterback this season.

    Justin Herbert and Brock Purdy are tied for the most passing yards against the Seahawks this season (189). FantasyPros projects Nix to pass for only 191 yards this week.

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 94.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba is following up his electrifying 2025 campaign with an even more impressive start. Among 102 players with at least 100 routes, Smith-Njigba ranks:

    • 2nd in target share (32.7%)
    • 2nd in targets per route run (0.35 TPRR)
    • 1st in first-read rate (43.1%)
    • 1st in air yard share (53.3%)
    • 1st in receiving yards per game (116.6)
    • 1st in yards per route run (4.22 YPRR)

    Patrick Surtain II was listed as a non-participant for Denver’s walkthrough on Tuesday after missing last week’s game with an ankle injury. Smith-Njigba will seemingly dodge Surtain.

    Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, the Broncos played zone coverage at a 71.9% clip and two-high coverage at a 65.6% rate in Week 5 without Surtain and Riley Moss, after logging a 64.6% zone rate and 47.5% two-high rate through the first four weeks. Smith-Njigba has 0.35 TPRR and 5.16 YPRR on 100 routes against zone and 0.33 TPRR and 4.47 YPRR on 89 routes against two-high coverage this season.

    Smith-Njigba should barbecue Denver’s secondary. He is projected for 97.6 receiving yards this week.

    J.K. Dobbins Over 13.5 Rush Attempts (-114)

    In the first four weeks, J.K. Dobbins had 46 rush attempts (11.5 per game). Dobbins handled only 63.9% of Denver’s backfield’s rush attempts. With Payton calling plays last week, Dobbins carried the ball 18 times, accounting for 81.8% of the backfield’s rush attempts.

    In addition, Payton drastically changed the play-calling tendencies. The Broncos were 20th in pass rate over expected (-0.4% PROE) through Week 4. Denver had a -9.6% PROE against the Chargers in Week 5. The Seahawks have faced a -1.7% PROE this season.

    The game’s slight spread should let Payton play to his preferences and not chase the Seahawks if the game stays as close as the spread suggests. My biggest concern about Dobbins eclipsing 13.5 rush attempts is his injury history and the quick turnaround for a Thursday Night Football game.

    Will the team handle him more cautiously? It could be in the range of outcomes, but their alternatives as runners are dreadful. Jonah Coleman is also eligible to return from injured reserve (IR) in Week 7. So, Payton might be more willing to lean on Dobbins to reduce his workload when Coleman returns. Ultimately, I expect Dobbins to run the ball at least 14 times this week.

    Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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