NFL Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Chiefs vs. Ravens (Week 1)
The first game of the 2024 NFL season is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game. The Ravens lost at home when these teams met in January, and now they’ll attempt to avenge the loss in the home of the defending Super Bowl champions. There are a handful of eye-catching player props in the battle of heavyweights.
Here are my best bets for Week 1 Chiefs/Ravens matchup on Thursday Night Football.
Best Thursdsay Night Football Week 1 Player Prop Bets
All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 258.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Even with a relatively lackluster group of pass-catchers for most of last year, Andy Reid dialed up a pass-happy offense for Patrick Mahomes. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Kansas City had the sixth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (60%).
Including last season’s playoffs, Mahomes averaged 261.7 passing yards per game in 20 games, with a median of 253.5. So, his average was above his line of 258.5 passing yards, but his median fell short. Mahomes also had only 241 passing yards against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.
Nevertheless, Baltimore lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to a head-coaching gig, and Mahomes has traditionally flamed the Ravens. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Mahomes has averaged 344.0 passing yards per game against the Ravens in five meetings, with a previous low of 343 passing yards against them before last year’s effort in the playoffs. Armed with a new field-stretching weapon, first-round pick Xavier Worthy, Mahomes should return to his previous form against the Ravens. FantasyPros projects Mahomes to have 271.2 passing yards this week.
Travis Kelce OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
A pass-heavy offensive attack is ideal for Mahomes’ passing outlook. Yet, it’s also optimal for the Overs for his pass-catchers, namely his long-running top weapon, Travis Kelce.
The end might be near for Kelce, but he’s not showing signs of falling off a cliff. Instead, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kelce was second in yards per route run (2.02 Y/RR) and first in their receiving grade among tight ends targeted at least 50 times last season. The veteran tight end was also targeted on an impressive 23.4% of his 662 routes last year.
On the one hand, Worthy is a new competitor for Kelce’s targets. On the other hand, the player with the fastest 40-yard dash time in NFL Draft Combine history could open up the intermediate and short areas of the field for Kelce if the Ravens dedicate resources to keep Worthy from getting over the top of them.
Kelce’s excellence against the Ravens was also a notable consideration for this selection. Kelce has faced the Ravens six times in his career, recording at least 73 receiving yards in each matchup. He’s averaged 91.8 receiving yards per game against them, setting a new best against them with 116 in last year’s AFC Championship Game. FantasyPros projects Kelce to have 59.6 receiving yards against the Ravens in Week 1.
Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+180 DraftKings)
In the offseason, Rashee Rice was in the news for the wrong reasons for his involvement in a high-speed accident. Nevertheless, he hasn’t faced his day in court and will play for now.
Despite needing help in the passing attack early last year, Reid brought Rice along slowly as a rookie before unleashing him late. Yet, even with Rice’s limited usage early in the year, he had excellent usage near the end zone.
According to FantasyPros, Mahomes had 50 pass attempts inside the 10-yard line in the regular season last year versus 28 rush attempts for Kansas City’s non-quarterbacks. In addition to the Chiefs leaning into the pass inside the 10-yard line, Mahomes directed 11 targets to Rice. So, the rookie wideout was targeted on 22.0% of Mahomes’s passes inside the 10-yard line, converting eight into receptions and five for touchdowns. In all, Rice had eight touchdowns in 20 contests. In a possible shootout, Rice has compelling odds to score a touchdown.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.