NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season starts with an NFC South showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons live from the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Buccaneers are 3-1 after a crushing win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4, while the Falcons took down the New Orleans Saints with a walk-off field goal.
Below, I’ve created a three-leg Same Game Parlay (SGP) for this game with odds of +260.
Let’s check it out.
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Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are one unit unless otherwise stated
- Leg 1: Falcons -2 (-108)
- Leg 2: Bijan Robinson Anytime TD Scorer (-125)
- Leg 3: Tyler Allgeier 25+ Rushing Yards (-330)
Falcons -2 (-108)
The Falcons are at home and while the Buccaneers have looked great this season, they’ve struggled against opposing running backs.
This season, the Buccaneers have allowed 69 carries for 351 yards (5.09 yards per carry) and three rushing touchdowns. Additionally, they’ve allowed 26 receptions on 30 targets for 243 yards.
This has come with three games where running backs have had 19 or fewer carries.
The Falcons have two running backs that can produce in the running and receiving game. Running back Tyler Allgeier averages over six yards per carry and Bijan Robinson has 15 receptions this season.
Utilizing the running game is how the Falcons will need to win, as the Buccaneers have allowed just one passing touchdown this season.
The Buccaneers will face a Falcons defense that allows fewer than 200 passing yards per game and opposing running backs who average fewer than four yards per carry.
Look for a heavy dosage of Robinson and Allgeier here, hence the remaining legs of this SGP.
Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125)
This season, Bijan Robinson has 55 carries for 224 yards and one touchdown, with 15 receptions for 135 yards. He’s averaging about 17.5 touches per game. Before Week 4, the average was close to 20. He had just seven carries for 28 yards in Week 4 but made up for that lack of production with four receptions for 46 yards.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Falcons have the seventh-best run-blocking offensive line and the 26th-best pass-blocking offensive line.
Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown 54.7% of his attempts either behind the line of scrimmage or 0-9 yards downfield. All of Robinson’s catches have come in this range.
Robinson will receive plenty of touches against a Buccaneers defense that struggles against running backs.
Tyler Allgeier 25+ Rushing Yards Yards (-330)
Tyler Allgeier going for 25+ yards at -330 illustrates an implied probability of 76.74%, and the per-game stats back it up.
Allgeier has recorded 25+ yards rushing in three straight games. Allgeier averages 6.1 yards per carry and close to seven carries per game.
This season, the Buccaneers have allowed five running backs to rush for 25+ yards. This includes one player, Denver Broncos running back Tyler Badie, who did it on single-digit carries.
Allgeier could reach 40+ rushing yards, which would add a bit more value to this parlay. Given his per-game touch average, I’ll play it safe at 25+.
Parlay Odds: +260
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