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NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Falcons vs. Packers

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We had a phenomenal Week 2 Thursday Night Football game between the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions, with the Bills winning 41-31. Still, I wouldn’t expect Week 3 to be anywhere near the same quality, as the Green Bay Packers host the Atlanta Falcons.

The Falcons benched third-string quarterback Cooper Rush in Week 2 after he completed 10-of-17 passes for 86 yards and two interceptions in a 34-3 loss to the Carolina Panthers. He was benched for fourth-string quarterback Jack Strand, who also threw an interception. This week, though, the Falcons will have Michael Penix Jr. back under center.

As for the Packers, they’re coming off an ugly 20-17 overtime win over the New York Jets. Packers quarterback Jordan Love completed 16-of-29 passes for 145 yards and two touchdowns. In Week 1, they allowed 39 points to the Minnesota Vikings and lost.

In what could be a brutal game to watch, here’s my best three-leg NFL Thursday Night Football same game parlay (SGP).

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      NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Falcons vs. Packers

      (Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

      Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

      Leg 1: Green Bay Packers Moneyline (-340)

      The point spread is seven, and while the Falcons have been incredibly bad, I just cannot lay seven points with the Packers right now.

      Jordan Love has completed just 52.1% of his passes through two games, and his team has the league’s worst rushing yards-per-game average (64.5).

      As for the Falcons, they’re 32nd in passing yards per game (123.5), 29th in total yards per game (262), and 32nd in points per game (8.0). Yes, Penix will be under center, but in nine games last season, he averaged just one touchdown pass per game and completed around 60% of his throws.

      Overall, the Packers are the most functional team, with solid skill players surrounding Love and a sound defense, especially given how rookie cornerback Brandon Cisse has been playing.

      This is one of those situations where, in a straight-up bet, I’d leave this game alone, but in a three-leg SGP, I’ll take the Packers on the Moneyline.

      Leg 2: Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-145)

      Bijan Robinson is the lone bright spot on the Falcons’ offense right now, averaging 24 touches per game. He had a receiving touchdown in Week 1 while catching eight passes for 90 yards. In Week 2’s loss, it’s no surprise he didn’t score, given how bad the offense was overall. Robinson ran the ball 16 times for 72 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry.

      Now, against the Packers, Robinson will face a defense that has allowed three rushing touchdowns in the first two games. The yards-per-carry average they’re allowing is quite low, but they gave up 63 receiving yards to Breece Hall in Week 2, plus 29 yards on the ground.

      The Falcons need to feed Robinson the ball. He’s their only hope on offense. I believe he can volume his way to a touchdown.

      Leg 3: Christian Watson Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

      This season, Christian Watson leads the Packers in target share (27.5%). He’s caught 10 passes on 19 targets for 188 yards and three touchdowns.

      Taking on the Falcons, the Packers will play primarily against Cover 3, based on the Falcons’ coverage scheme against the Carolina Panthers.

      Against Cover 3, Watson has two catches for 38 yards this season, averaging 19 yards per catch. Last season against Cover 3, Watson boasted a 33.8% target share and averaged 14.5 yards per catch.

      Watson is the type of player who could reach 66 yards on just a few catches.

      Parlay Odds: +345

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