NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Rams vs. Seahawks
Week 16 of the NFL season is here, and kicking things off is perhaps the game with the most stakes we’ve seen all season as the Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams.
These teams played in Week 11, and the Rams escaped with a win as the Seahawks missed a game-winning field goal. Both teams are 11-3, but the Rams lead the NFC West due to that head-to-head win and are the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are the No. 5 seed and would play a road game at Tampa Bay if the season ended today.
With a Seahawks win, these teams would flip spots. The Rams are dealing with some key injuries, though, as wide receiver Davante Adams injured his hamstring in Week 15.
Below is a three-leg NFL Thursday Night Football same game parlay (SGP), including a spread pick and two props. Let’s check it out.
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NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Rams vs. Seahawks
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated
- Leg 1: Rams +1.5 (-122)
- Leg 2: Puka Nacua 90+ Receiving Yards (-133)
- Leg 3: Colby Parkinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220)
Leg #1: Rams +1.5 (-122)
Sure, playing in Seattle at that stadium is hard for anyone, but I don’t trust Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold too much right now. It’s nearing the end of the season, where games are must-win, and I’m having flashbacks to last season with the Minnesota Vikings, where they couldn’t get a key win. While that’s more of a “vibes” analysis, the numbers back it up, too.
From Week 11 on, including the loss to the Rams, Sam Darnold is completing fewer than 63% of his passes for 1,171 yards (234.2 yards per game), five touchdowns and five interceptions. In the loss to the Rams, he threw four interceptions. While he only has one since then, he’s also gone two games without a passing touchdown, including last week against the Indianapolis Colts, where he completed 61.1% of his passes for 271 yards and zero touchdowns.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has been playing at an MVP level all season and has multiple touchdown strikes in all but two games this season. I’ll take the points on the road.
Leg #2: Puka Nacua 90+ Receiving Yards (-133)
The Seahawks allow the fewest receiving yards to opposing wideouts (104.71) per game. While that would be concerning if Davante Adams were on the field, he won’t be for this game, and there’s no other wide receiver that’s factored into the game plan.
When Adams isn’t on the field, the next closest wide receiver, target share-wise, is Konata Mumpfield at 7.7%. After Nacua’s 25.4%, the next closest are all tight ends. Nacua will gobble up all of the production on the wide receiver depth chart while the tight ends, plus running backs Blake Corum and Kyren Williams, continue to be productive.
Leg #3: Colby Parkinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220)
As mentioned, tight ends get plenty more work when Davante Adams isn’t on the field, and the leader of that group is Colby Parkinson with an 18.9% target share. He’s caught 13 out of 14 targets for 164 yards and three touchdowns.
In Week 11’s win over the Seahawks, Parkinson also caught a touchdown. The Seahawks typically don’t allow many touchdowns to tight ends, but they allow the fourth-most yards. I’m willing to take a chance on Parkinson scoring again at +220 odds. (He has a touchdown in five of his last six games.)
Parlay Odds: +750