NFL Week 1 Anytime TD Scorers & Win Parlays (2025)
Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is underway. Months of anticipation and analysis can finally be replaced with real live game action. While there are sure to be a fair number of surprises throughout the league, I have identified a few spots that should prove profitable in Week 1.
These NFL same-game parlay (SGP) picks consist of an anytime touchdown scorer pick and a Moneyline win bet. By selecting a player to score in conjunction with their team winning the game, we can significantly increase our return on an outcome that can be directly correlated with the original bet. Here are three of my favorite parlays for Week 1.
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NFL Week 1 Anytime TD Scorer & Win Parlays
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
While previous data can be tricky to predict from year to year, some trends should work in Arizona's favor on Sunday. New Orleans ranked 30th in defensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) versus the run and in adjusted line yards last year. They did not make significant upgrades to their roster or coaching staff. New defensive coordinator Brandon Staley was the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers from 2021 to 2023. In those three seasons, Los Angeles never ranked better than 21st in defense DVOA or 24th in adjusted line yards allowed. Enter the Arizona Cardinals and James Conner.
Arizona finished ninth in rushing DVOA and adjusted line yards a season ago. Veteran running back James Conner led the way. Conner had another solid season in the desert in 2024. He scored nine times last year and has now found the end zone 44 times in four seasons as a Cardinal.
Conner’s efficiency down by the goal line is among the very best in the NFL. Of the 19 running backs who had at least 20 carries inside their opponents' 10-yard line last year, Conner's 38.1% touchdown rate on those carries was third behind Derrick Henry and James Cook.
Overall, Arizona is a much better team than New Orleans. Quarterback Spencer Rattler looked overmatched when called upon last year, and I do not expect drastic improvement in 2025. The Cardinals should take care of business here, and I like Conner to score en route to an Arizona victory.
Bet: James Conner Anytime TD/Arizona Cardinals to Win (+102 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
The Cincinnati Bengals won their last five games last season, but got themselves in too deep a hole early and missed the playoffs. They should come out focused on getting off to a strong start as an initial step towards returning to the playoffs. They have had issues in recent years versus their in-state rivals, the Cleveland Browns. But the Bengals are the more talented team and will find a way to prevail on the road in Week 1.
There is no shortage of anytime touchdown candidates on the Bengals. However, Cincinnati had a league-average run offense based on DVOA in 2024, while the Browns ranked similarly on the defensive end. Conversely, the Bengals were a top-five passing offense, while Cleveland ranked in the bottom five against the pass. That eliminates Chase Brown from my calculus. Instead, I am focused on Cincinnati's top two wide receivers, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Chase led the league in every receiving category, including touchdowns, last season. However, Higgins ran nearly stride for stride with him on a per-game basis. Chase scored 17 times in 17 games, scoring at least once in 11 games (64.7%). Higgins scored 10 times in 13 games, with at least one score in eight of them (58.3%). Both players scored in both meetings versus the Browns in 2024. In my opinion, there is no wrong answer here. Having said that, I am going with Tee Higgins for two reasons.
First, let's start with Cleveland's cornerbacks. Cleveland had four cornerbacks who played at least 340 snaps last season. That includes Martin Emerson Jr., who is out for the 2025 season. Denzel Ward was the only one of the four who graded inside the top 100 among 116 qualified cornerbacks, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Ward should guard Chase quite often in man coverage on Sunday. I still think Chase has the advantage in that matchup, but the advantage Higgins will have over whoever lines up against him will be much greater.
Higgins also comes at a better price. I am listing prices for BetRivers/Bally's and DraftKings Sportsbook, since I know many people do not have access to the former. The best price for a Chase anytime touchdown/Bengals Moneyline win parlay is +135 on BetRivers/Bally's and +130 on DraftKings Sportsbook. To me, that is too high a discrepancy considering the matchup and history.
Bet: Tee Higgins Anytime TD/Cincinnati Bengals to Win (+200 at BetRivers/Bally’s; +194 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos are the biggest favorite on the Week 1 board. They are coming off a 10-7 season and are hosting a 3-14 team from a year ago with a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start. If this game were played later in the season, Cam Ward could have a bigger impact.
However, it is hard to imagine Ward leading the Tennessee Titans to a win in his debut. Stranger things have happened, of course. But I am confident in backing the Broncos to win this game outright. Now for the tricky part. Which player to score? This may be a longshot, but I really like Marvin Mims Jr. in this spot.
Tennessee's relative strength defensively is against the run. They ranked 16th in DVOA versus the run last year but just 24th against the pass. Tennessee's top returning cornerback is L'Jarius Sneed. Sneed played poorly in limited action last year and may not yet be at 100% after last season's knee injury. The Titans added two cornerbacks to the mix just last week, further highlighting their concern about the position.
After a quiet first half last year, Mims exploded late in the season. He scored all six of his touchdowns in Denver's final seven regular-season games. Look for Mims to carry that momentum with him into the 2025 season. He may not score double-digit touchdowns this season, but a Week 1 matchup with an inferior opponent is a solid bet, especially at this price point.
Bet: Marvin Mims Jr. Anytime TD/Denver Broncos to Win (+320 at Fanatics Sportsbook; +315 at DraftKings Sportsbook)